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WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR SUNAK?Potentially his job. Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss’ plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he’s not improved the Conservatives’ ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals.With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there’s mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday’s elections are really bad.Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble.IS LABOUR HEADED FOR POWER?In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb if it’s going to form the next government.It’s performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the center of British politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn.Starmer’s cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it’s fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election.That may be partly due to the more challenging economic backdrop, but Starmer, formerly a human rights lawyer, lacks the razzmatazz of his predecessor. Even so, Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.One point of concern is how many traditionally Labour supporters in Muslim communities fail to vote in protest at the party’s stance over the conflict in Gaza.ARE VOTERS BEING TACTICAL?One of the contributing factors to Blair’s landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting, whereby some voters put aside their preferred political party and back whoever they think is most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.Tactical voting has reemerged in recent years and could become key in the general election. It usually involves voters sympathetic to Labour in parts of the country, such as southwest England, backing the much-smaller Liberal Democrats and Liberal Democrat supporters loaning votes to Labour in the Midlands and the north of England.Conservative lawmakers across the U.K., even in supposedly safe seats, will be hugely concerned if voters think more tactically.PINCER FROM THE RIGHT?The Conservatives don’t just face a challenge from the left. Reform UK is trying to outflank it from the right.Though it is standing in a few seats, Conservatives will worry that support for the party will see Labour and others come through the middle.Reform UK, which claims to be tougher on issues such as immigration and on Brexit, has said it won’t stand aside to give incumbent Conservative lawmakers an easier chance at the general election, as its former incarnation, The Brexit Party, did in 2019. The Blackpool South special election will be particularly interesting on that front.

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