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By Express News Service
GUNTUR: In the wake of fears of Russia invading Ukraine, the Indian Embassy in its capital, Kyiv, has asked all Indians there to temporarily leave the country.
While the authorities are still trying to determine the number of Telugu students stuck in the country, many are reluctant to leave just yet as they don’t want to skip classes.
An official from the Andhra Pradesh Non-Resident Telugu Society said, “We have set up a helpline, and are giving all information to people who contact us. However, we are not sure how many students and others from Andhra are in Ukraine. Most of the students who contacted us said they don’t want to leave now as their classes are still going on, and that they are safe. P Sekhar, a resident of Guntur, whose son is an MBBS 4th year student in Ukraine said his son doesn’t want to come back now as his classes are in a crucial stage. “He is waiting for the management to agree to conduct online classes,” he added.
As per media reports, Air India will operate three flights between India and Ukraine on February 22, 24 and 26.
The flights will take off from Boryspil International Airport and bookings are open through AI booking officer, website, call centre and authorised travel agent.
Russia has positioned around 1 lakh troops near its border with Ukraine, besides sending warships to the Black Sea for naval exercises, triggering concerns among the NATO countries about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has been denying that it plans to invade Ukraine.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) set up a control room on Wednesday to provide information and assistance to the Indian nationals in Ukraine.
In addition, the Indian embassy in Ukraine has also set up a 24-hour helpline for Indians in the eastern European nation.
The Tata Group-owned Air India said on Twitter that it will operate three flights between India and the Boryspil International Airport in Ukraine on February 22, 24 and 26.
“Booking open through Air India booking offices, website, call centre and authorised travel agents,” it added.
Ground situation at Ukraine
Spiking tensions in eastern Ukraine on Friday aggravated Western fears of a Russian invasion and a new war in Europe, with a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling and pro-Russian rebels evacuating civilians from the conflict zone.
A car bombing hit the eastern city of Donetsk, but no casualties were reported.
The Kremlin declared massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and President Vladimir Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.
US and European leaders, meanwhile, grasped for ways to keep the peace and Europe’s post-Cold War security order.
While Putin held out the possibility of diplomacy, a cascade of developments this week have have further exacerbated East-West tensions and fuelled war worries.
This week’s actions have fed those concerns: US and European officials, focused on an estimated 150,000 Russian troops posted around Ukraine’s borders, warn the long-simmering separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine could provide the spark for a broader attack.
Vice President Kamala Harris said the US still hopes Russia will de-escalate but is ready to hit it with tough sanctions in case of an attack.
US leaders this week issued their most dire warnings yet that Moscow could order an invasion of Ukraine any day.
“We remain, of course, open to and desirous of diplomacy, but we are also committed, if Russia takes aggressive action, to ensure there will be severe consequence,” Harris said at the annual Munich Security Conference.
While Russia snubbed this year’s conference, lines of communication remain open: The US and Russian defence chiefs spoke Friday, and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin called for de-escalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases, and a diplomatic resolution, according to the Pentagon.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week.
Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.
A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the major eastern city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
The head of the separatists’ forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported.
There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast.
Uniformed men inspected the burned-out car.
Broken glass littered the area.
Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities like Donetsk.
However, the explosion and the announced evacuations were in line with US warnings of so-called false-flag attacks that Russia would use to justify an invasion.
The US State Department noted that Blinken had warned of this type of false-flag operation on Thursday at the UN Security Council.
Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine’s industrial heartland known as the Donbas said they are evacuating civilians to Russia.
The announcement appeared to be part of Moscow’s efforts to counter Western warnings of a Russian invasion, and paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead.
Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk rebel government, said women, children and the elderly would go first, and that Russia has prepared facilities for them.
Pushilin alleged in a video statement that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was going to order an imminent offensive in the area.
Authorities began moving children from an orphanage in Donetsk, and other residents boarded buses for Russia.
Long lines formed at gas stations as more people prepared to leave on their own.
Putin ordered his emergencies minister to fly to the Rostov region bordering Ukraine to help organize the exodus and ordered the government to offer a payment of 10,000 rubles (about $130) to each evacuee, equivalent to about half of an average monthly salary in the war-ravaged Donbas.
Ukraine denied planning any offensive, with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba saying that “Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas.”
“We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only,” he tweeted.
Around the volatile line of contact, a UNCHR convoy came under rebel shelling in the Luhansk region, Ukraine’s military chief said.
No casualties were reported.
Rebels denied involvement and accused Ukraine of staging a provocation.
Separatist authorities reported more shelling by Ukrainian forces along the line.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the situation is “potentially very dangerous”.
A surge of shelling Thursday tore through the walls of a kindergarten, injuring two, and basic communications were disrupted.
Both sides accused each other of opening fire.
US and European officials have been on high alert for any Russian attempts at a so-called false-flag operation.
A Western official familiar with intelligence findings said Ukrainian government officials shared intelligence that suggested the Russians might try to shell the areas in the Luhansk region controlled by separatists, as part of an effort to create a false reason to take military action.
The official was not authorised to comment publicly.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the threat to global security is “more complex and probably higher” than during the Cold War.
He told the Munich conference that a small mistake or miscommunication between major powers could have catastrophic consequences.
While Russia announced this week it is pulling back forces from vast military exercises that had sparked fears of an invasion, US officials have said they see no sign of a pullback, and instead saw more troops moving toward the border with Ukraine.
Austin said the US believes Russia could launch an attack “any time”.
The US government released new estimates Friday of how many military personnel Russia has in and around Ukraine.
It said there are between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel, up from about about 100,000 on Jan 30, according to Michael Carpenter, the permanent US representative to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
The new estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine.
The separatists inside Ukraine, the Russian National Guard and troops in Crimea were not included in the previous US estimate of 150,000.
The Kremlin sent a reminder to the world of its nuclear might, announcing drills of its nuclear forces for the weekend.
Putin will monitor the sweeping exercise Saturday that will involve multiple practice missile launches.
The move overshadowed Russian offers of continued diplomacy to defuse the Ukraine crisis.
While the Kremlin insists it has no plans to invade, it has urged the West to keep Ukraine out of NATO and roll back alliance forces from Eastern Europe, demands roundly rejected by Western allies.
Asked about Western warnings of a possible Russian invasion on Wednesday that didn’t materialise, Putin said, “There are so many false claims, and constantly reacting to them is more trouble than it’s worth.”
“We are doing what we consider necessary and will keep doing so,’ he said.
“We have clear and precise goals conforming to national interests.”
Putin reaffirmed that Russia was open for dialogue on confidence-building measures with the West on condition that they will be discussed in conjunction with Moscow’s main security demands.
NATO allies are also flexing their might, bolstering military forces around Eastern Europe, but insist the actions are purely defensive and to show unity in the face of Russian threats.
The US announced the $6 billion sale of 250 tanks to Poland, a NATO member that has been occupied or attacked by Russia in the past.
World leaders meeting in Munich warned that Europe’s security balance is under threat.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the situation is calling into question the basic principles of the European peace order.
Biden planned to speak by phone Friday with trans-Atlantic leaders about the crisis and continued efforts at deterrence and diplomacy, and to give a speech about the situation.
Widely available commercial satellite imagery of Russian troop positions bracketing Ukraine provides a bird’s-eye view of an international crisis as it unfolds.
But the pictures, while dramatic, have limitations.
High-resolution photos from commercial satellite companies like Maxar in recent days showed Russian troop assembly areas, airfields, artillery positions and other activities on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and in southern Belarus as well as on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.
The images confirmed what U.S. and other Western officials have been saying: Russian forces are arrayed within striking distances of Ukraine.
But they could not provide conclusive information about net additions or subtractions of Russian forces or reveal when or whether an invasion of Ukraine would happen.
In such a fluid crisis, even day-old satellite photos might miss significant changes on the ground.
Western officials, citing their own sources of information, have disputed Moscow’s claim that it pulled back some forces, and they asserted that the Russians added as many as 7,000 more troops in recent days.
Commercial satellite images alone cannot provide that level of detail in real time or allow broader conclusions about the Russian buildup, such as the total number of its deployed troops.
“What you get out of an outfit like Maxar is very good information but not as precise or as timely as that provided to U.S. national leadership” through the government’s own classified collection systems, said James Stavridis, a retired Navy admiral who served as the top NATO commander in Europe from 2009 to 2013.
“Therefore I would strongly bias my views toward what is being reported by the U.S. government.”
Before commercial satellite imagery became widely available and distributed online, Russia, the United States and other powers could largely hide their most sensitive military movements and deployments from near real-time public scrutiny.
Although the public now can obtain a better view, this imagery is not nearly as precise, comprehensive or immediate as what the U.S. military can collect.
The U.S. military and intelligence agencies can piece together a better picture of what’s happening by combining satellite imagery with real-time video as well as electronic information scooped up by aircraft such as the Air Force’s RC-135 Rivet Joint, not to mention information gathered from human sources.
The U.S. government also contracts with commercial satellite firms for imagery as a supplement and to ease the strain on imagery collection systems needed for other top-priority information.
Commercial satellite images, as a snapshot in time, do not provide indisputable evidence of exactly what the Russian military is doing or why.
“You can see something on a base, that looks like a base that has a lot of activity,” and reach some broad conclusions.
“But in terms of what’s being done there, and what the units are, that takes a lot more intel,” said Hans Kristensen, who has extensively analyzed commercial satellite imagery to study nuclear weapons developments in China and elsewhere in his position as director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
(With PTI Inputs)
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