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During the Vajpayee years, between 1998 and 2004, this ratio rose from 30 percent to 35 percent, before falling back to 30 percent at the end of UPA. Again, between 1991 and 1998, the ratio fell slightly from 31 percent to 30 percent. Whenever the Congress was in power, by itself or in the ruling mix, such as from 1991 to 1998, and from 2004 to 2014, India’s economy lagged behind its peers. During the Vajpayee years and the Modi years, India moved ahead. This may seem puzzling to supporters of the UPA. They would point out that the GDP growth rates during the UPA years were higher than during the Modi years. But consider the following example. In the 1983 World Cup finals, India scored 183 runs. In the 2023 World Cup finals, India scored 240 runs. Which was the better performance? What matters is that India won in 1983, but lost in 2023. The important thing is to stay ahead of the competition.Why then do we rarely discuss such comparisons? Perhaps because the data is deeply embarrassing for the path India has taken since independence. In the early 1950s, India’s per capita GDP was about 18 percent of that of the world. By 1991, it fell to a mere 6 percent. In other words, India became three times poorer in the four decades of Nehruvian socialism. Even by 2014, it had recovered only to 14 percent, still well below the 1950s level. As of now, it stands at 21 percent. When did India’s per capita GDP cross that of Pakistan? That was in 2006-07, about sixty years after independence. When did India’s per capita GDP finally exceed that of sub-Saharan Africa? That would be 2015. Beyond the myth making, the old establishment must take the blame for this.In the early 2000s, India found itself on a path of high growth. There was a sense that India’s moment had finally arrived. But others were actually doing much better. In 2004, India’s economy was 37 percent the size of the Chinese economy. By 2014, it had shrunk to 19 percent. In relative terms, India’s economic size had been cut in half during the UPA years. In 2024, it now stands at 22 percent. That is only slightly better. But at least the gap is no longer increasing.
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How the Modi, Manmohan and Vajpayee years compare on growth front
