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Climate experts analysed different factors that impact the southwest monsoon, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean, and snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere (NH).A positive (negative) IOD is associated with stronger (weaker) than normal southwest monsoon over the region. Experts agreed that the current IOD is in a neutral condition, and different models indicate that favourable positive IOD conditions would develop later in the southwest monsoon season. The NH winter and spring snow cover extent generally has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The NH snow cover areas during January to March 2024 were below normal.The snow cover area during February and March respectively was the 8th and 7th lowest ever recorded during the past 58 years, which further boosts the southwest monsoon. During the season, above-normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of South Asia, except for a few areas over the south-eastern part of the region, where normal temperatures are most likely.
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Expect above-normal monsoon rainfall in India, says South Asian experts’ panel
