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Biden flipped Kent County and improved on Democrats’ 2016 performance in Oakland County on the way to winning Michigan in 2020 and beating Trump in the election.Richard Czuba, a pollster who has long tracked Michigan politics, said Haley’s results were more significant for understanding a critical swing state in the general election than the campaign to vote “uncommitted” against Biden to protest his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, which drew about 100,000 votes and collected two Democratic delegates.”This is by far, to me, the one narrative we saw (Tuesday) that will have major implications in November,” Czuba said.Trump declined to mention Haley, his former U.N. ambassador, after beating her in South Carolina, and his campaign has accused her of deluding voters about her chances.”She can’t name one state she can win, let alone be competitive in,” spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a recent statement.Haley indeed resisted naming a state she could win when questioned by The Associated Press and other media. But interviews with three dozen voters at her rallies and AP VoteCast data from the Republican primary suggest several vulnerabilities for Trump heading into a Biden rematch.About half of Republican voters in South Carolina — including about a quarter of his supporters — are concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 2,400 voters taking part in the Republican primary in South Carolina, conducted for AP by NORC at the University of Chicago.Trump allies have accused Haley of appealing to the left to vote in open Republican primaries. Some 19% of Haley voters in South Carolina identified themselves as Democrats or people who lean Democratic, according to AP VoteCast. But 72% were Republicans or lean toward the GOP.About 3 in 10 South Carolina primary voters believe he acted illegally in at least one of the criminal cases against him, even though about three-quarters believe the investigations are political attempts to undermine him.”We’ve been tightening the belt as much as we can, but can’t think about having kids until we can afford it,” said Jonathan Paquette, a 27-year-old contractor from Minnetonka, Minnesota, a suburb of the Twin Cities.”That’s the kind of discussion this campaign should be about, not about lawsuits and criminal indictments. That doesn’t solve any of our problems.”Lori Jacobson, a 64-year-old retired lab technician from Monticello, a small town northwest of the Twin Cities, said Trump “repulses me.” She voted for Trump in 2016 but not 2020.”It’s all about revenge with him,” Jacobson said. Haley, she said, “has a calm that stands in such contrast to him, though she is a very strong woman.”Across the states where Haley’s post-South Carolina campaign has gone, some voters have picked up on that messaging.”Forty percent is better than no percent,” said Alyssa Prevo, an Uber driver from Williamston, Michigan, as she waited for Haley ahead of a Monday event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.Prevo, a military veteran, described herself as a longtime Republican, although she said she had voted for Democratic candidates in the past.”Forty percent is a lot, it’s not a little, even though she lost her home state,” Prevo said. “People focus on the losing, I don’t. She has integrity. And for me, the umbrella, integrity, is everything she has under that.”
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Nikki Haley can’t win Republican primary with 40% support, but can expose some of Trump’s weaknesses
