By Online Desk
The BJP-led NDA alliance is likely to form the government for the third time at the Centre as the newly formed I.N.D.I.A alliance poses no threat to the incumbent, said equity broker IIFL Securities.
I.N.D.I.A – short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – cannot supplant the NDA at the Centre without a significant change in the mood of the electorate, the firm said.
The prediction was based on a mathematical alliance of the vote shares of different parties – including the NDA – in the general election in 2019.
As per its analysis, the I.N.D.I.A alliance would have secured a 38% vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by securing 158 seats. The NDA had got a 38.5% vote share in the same election.
However, key to the analysis was the fact that in the 2019 elections, the NDA had a vote share of nearly 50% in 224 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, pointed out IIFL.
Even as both the NDA and the I.N.D.I.A alliance have an equal consolidated voting share, the BJP enjoys more concentrated vote shares which translates into more seats whereas the Congress’ vote share is more dispersed.
The firm’s analysis runs contrary to the expectations expressed by many commentators, who have predicted that the new alliance will give a tough fight to the NDA due to the effect of consolidation of opposition votes.
Consolidation of opposition votes refers to the phenomenon of the opposition candidate doing better since the anti-NDA vote will be split between a fewer number of rival candidates this time.
In other words, instead of a triangular fight between the BJP and two or three powerful opposition parties in each constituency, the new formation is likely to result in a straight, one-on-one fight between the NDA candidate and a combined opposition candidate, giving a greater chance of success to the latter.
However, IIFL puts the impact of such vote consolidation at just 17 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, reducing the NDA’s total seat share from around 330 to around 313 seats – still above the halfway mark of 272 seats.
However, the firm also took into consideration a possible vote swing in favor of the opposition due to anti-incumbency.
“So a 2 percentage point swing in favour of the I.N.D.I.A looks like the best-case scenario for them, and in such a case NDA loses 28 seats (in addition to losses due to vote transfer),” it noted. Even then, it pointed out, the total seats would still be around 285. The firm said it does not see any major anti-incumbency factor at play at present.
I.N.D.I.A is the united opposition front of 26 political parties, replacing the UPA alliance, led by the Indian National Congress.
This alliance aims to contest only the 2024 Lok Sabha elections against the ruling NDA government and may not be coming together for the state elections.
State elections not a cakewalk for BJP
Even though the report suggested a comfortable win for the NDA alliance in Lok Sabha elections, it said that the same formula will not be applicable in the state elections.
“The upcoming five state polls by the end of 2023 could be a mixed bag for the BJP, but that is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the 2024 elections,” it said.
The India National Congress (INC) won the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections by securing 135 out of 224 seats.
While Karnataka has historically seen a ‘‘revolving door’ theory (no incumbent got re-elected in the last four decades), the win gave a morale boost to the INC cadre.
In the next three months, five states are going to the polls before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.
The BJP failed to put up an impressive fight in all five states in the 2018 elections. However, six months later, the party drove a sweep in the 2019 general elections.
“We believe BJP might have a mixed bag in terms of the outcome of these elections, with Chhattisgarh expected to be retained by INC, while Rajasthan could see a change with BJP taking over from INC,” the report said.
The report maintained that no matter what the outcome of the state elections are, it does not necessarily translate to the mood of the nation ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Opinion polls and surveys also give majority to NDA
The latest C-Voter & India TV-CNX polls predict that the NDA will win 306 & 318 Lok Sabha seats respectively, with the BJP likely to retain its 2019 vote share of nearly 37%.
Despite the C-Voter survey showing that the economic condition of the people is weaker compared to 2019, the popularity of the BJP government and Prime Minister remains higher than that of opposition/leaders. The Opposition also faced a major setback after the defection of some NCP leaders to the NDA coalition in Maharashtra.
The BJP-led NDA alliance is likely to form the government for the third time at the Centre as the newly formed I.N.D.I.A alliance poses no threat to the incumbent, said equity broker IIFL Securities.
I.N.D.I.A – short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – cannot supplant the NDA at the Centre without a significant change in the mood of the electorate, the firm said.
The prediction was based on a mathematical alliance of the vote shares of different parties – including the NDA – in the general election in 2019.googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2′); });
As per its analysis, the I.N.D.I.A alliance would have secured a 38% vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by securing 158 seats. The NDA had got a 38.5% vote share in the same election.
However, key to the analysis was the fact that in the 2019 elections, the NDA had a vote share of nearly 50% in 224 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, pointed out IIFL.
Even as both the NDA and the I.N.D.I.A alliance have an equal consolidated voting share, the BJP enjoys more concentrated vote shares which translates into more seats whereas the Congress’ vote share is more dispersed.
The firm’s analysis runs contrary to the expectations expressed by many commentators, who have predicted that the new alliance will give a tough fight to the NDA due to the effect of consolidation of opposition votes.
Consolidation of opposition votes refers to the phenomenon of the opposition candidate doing better since the anti-NDA vote will be split between a fewer number of rival candidates this time.
In other words, instead of a triangular fight between the BJP and two or three powerful opposition parties in each constituency, the new formation is likely to result in a straight, one-on-one fight between the NDA candidate and a combined opposition candidate, giving a greater chance of success to the latter.
However, IIFL puts the impact of such vote consolidation at just 17 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, reducing the NDA’s total seat share from around 330 to around 313 seats – still above the halfway mark of 272 seats.
However, the firm also took into consideration a possible vote swing in favor of the opposition due to anti-incumbency.
“So a 2 percentage point swing in favour of the I.N.D.I.A looks like the best-case scenario for them, and in such a case NDA loses 28 seats (in addition to losses due to vote transfer),” it noted. Even then, it pointed out, the total seats would still be around 285. The firm said it does not see any major anti-incumbency factor at play at present.
I.N.D.I.A is the united opposition front of 26 political parties, replacing the UPA alliance, led by the Indian National Congress.
This alliance aims to contest only the 2024 Lok Sabha elections against the ruling NDA government and may not be coming together for the state elections.
State elections not a cakewalk for BJP
Even though the report suggested a comfortable win for the NDA alliance in Lok Sabha elections, it said that the same formula will not be applicable in the state elections.
“The upcoming five state polls by the end of 2023 could be a mixed bag for the BJP, but that is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the 2024 elections,” it said.
The India National Congress (INC) won the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections by securing 135 out of 224 seats.
While Karnataka has historically seen a ‘‘revolving door’ theory (no incumbent got re-elected in the last four decades), the win gave a morale boost to the INC cadre.
In the next three months, five states are going to the polls before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.
The BJP failed to put up an impressive fight in all five states in the 2018 elections. However, six months later, the party drove a sweep in the 2019 general elections.
“We believe BJP might have a mixed bag in terms of the outcome of these elections, with Chhattisgarh expected to be retained by INC, while Rajasthan could see a change with BJP taking over from INC,” the report said.
The report maintained that no matter what the outcome of the state elections are, it does not necessarily translate to the mood of the nation ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Opinion polls and surveys also give majority to NDA
The latest C-Voter & India TV-CNX polls predict that the NDA will win 306 & 318 Lok Sabha seats respectively, with the BJP likely to retain its 2019 vote share of nearly 37%.
Despite the C-Voter survey showing that the economic condition of the people is weaker compared to 2019, the popularity of the BJP government and Prime Minister remains higher than that of opposition/leaders. The Opposition also faced a major setback after the defection of some NCP leaders to the NDA coalition in Maharashtra.
