New Delhi:The latest Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) for 2025 released by the US intelligence community in late March has drawn attention by excluding Pakistan from its list of principal state-actor threats. The 31-page report identifies China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran as key challenges on military, technological, cyber, and economic fronts, among other domains.While non-state actors such as Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan are flagged for their ties to Al Qaeda and potential to harm American interests, the overall assessment makes no direct mention of Pakistan as a significant threat. Instead, it focuses on challenges that directly affect the United States, including drug cartels, cybercriminals, and emergent extremist groups like ISIS-K. Despite Pakistan’s longstanding reputation as a base for cross-border terrorism — particularly targeting Indian territory — the absence of any explicit reference to Islamabad’s role in fostering terrorism has raised eyebrows in New Delhi. Analysts note this omission could influence how India approaches its own counter-terrorism strategies. “This omission indicates a shift in US priorities,” said geopolitical analyst and counter-terrorism expert, Dr Rituraj Mate. “The Americans seem more focused on threats that affect their homeland security, rather than addressing regional concerns like cross-border terrorism faced by India.” Indian security officials have long maintained that terror outfits such as Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Jaish-e-Mohammed receive support from Pakistani state and non-state actors alike. Although the ATA 2025 does cite Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, it classifies them primarily as regional outfits affiliated with Al Qaeda, without highlighting their operations against Indian targets. “The US may want to avoid antagonising Pakistan given its strategic location and ties to Afghanistan and China,” Dr Mate added. “This also reflects Washington’s intention to keep open channels with Islamabad while it navigates intensifying great power competition with Beijing.” In light of the perceived gap in US threat perception, Indian experts urge a stronger domestic security framework. Enhanced cooperation among agencies such as the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the National Investigation Agency (NIA), and the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) is considered crucial. “India must chart its own counter-terrorism path,” said a senior security analyst. “Relying on external threat assessments that discount Pakistan’s role risks overlooking a central element in our national security scenario.” A senior counter-terrorism official also expressed concern that “ignoring Pakistan’s involvement in international terrorism” could embolden terror networks based in that country. He warned the US intelligence community may eventually need to “reevaluate its own findings on Islamabad,” recalling past instances where oversight led to devastating consequences, including the 9/11 attacks.
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