I have not been to Uttar Pradesh in some time, and what I am saying is not based on material that is recent or on any groundwork I have done recently. However, it is interesting to see the patterns of voting in the state over the last few years to arrive at what the possibilities are in that state’s election.In 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a full majority in Uttar Pradesh with a vote share of 29%. Remarkably it was not the BJP but the BSP that came second, with 26% vote share. The BJP, which was then led by Uma Bharati, had only 15%.Two years later in 2014, the BJP remarkably tripled its vote share (along with alliance partner Apna Dal) to 42%. On its own the BJP had about 40%.We can attribute this to two things: one is the leadership and charisma of Narendra Modi, which brought voters across northern India towards the BJP. The second was communal violence in western Uttar Pradesh.In August and September 2013, Muzaffarnagar and Shamli saw a series of episodes of extreme violence and rape which polarised the region and sent thousands of people, mostly Muslims, into relief camps.This polarisation remained for a long time and the BJP campaign of 2014 and 2017’s assembly elections used the violence to mobilise. The Hindu newspaper reported in March 2017 that the Jat vote was split and taken away from the Lok Dal by the BJP.
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