Understanding the population and demographic challenge

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Understanding the population and demographic challenge



Govt and RSS not on same page?Activists and the Opposition parties point out that the BJP and RSS are speaking in different voices on the issue. Raising it for the first time during his Independence Day speech in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the issue of an ever-rising population is a matter of concern and that a small section of society, which keeps their families small, deserves respect.During the interim Budget speech in February this year, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the government will form a high-powered committee to look into the challenges arising from fast population growth and demographic changes. The committee is yet to be formed.In an affidavit to the Supreme Court in 2020, the Union government said it cannot coerce couples into having a certain number of children to curb population explosion as it will be counter-productive.Some of the BJP-ruled states such as Assam and Uttar Pradesh have introduced stringent measures to control population growth. The Assam government in 2017 passed a law to prohibit individuals with more than two children from applying for government jobs. The state Law Commission of Uttar Pradesh proposed that families exceeding the two-child norm should not receive government subsidies.On the other hand, to address issues of low fertility rates and an aging population, Andhra Pradesh recently scrapped the two-child policy. Telangana is also likely to reverse the two-child criteria for local body poll contestants soon. Other states that scrapped the two-child policy include Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.Population policyIn 1952, India became the first nation globally to initiate a comprehensive national programme focused on family planning. This pioneering effort aimed to reduce birth rates to stabilise the population at a level appropriate for supporting the nation’s economic needs. The initiative was designed to align demographic growth with the sustainable requirements of the economy, reflecting a forward-thinking approach to population management during a critical period in the country’s development.The National Health Policy established in 1983 set an ambitious goal for India to achieve replacement TFR levels by 2000. This policy emphasised the importance of population control to ensure sustainable development. Fast forward to May 11, 2000, when India introduced its National Population Policy. This forward-looking policy sought to comprehensively address the nation’s reproductive and child health requirements while outlining a strategic plan to stabilise the population by 2045. Through a multifaceted approach, the policy aimed to promote health, empower families, and ensure a balanced demographic future.In 2023, India officially surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, with the United Nations reporting a population of 1,425,775,850, determined through a combination of census data and analyses of birth and death rates. Projections indicate that India’s population may peak at 1.7 billion by 2064. Approximately 86,000 children are born daily in India, compared to 49,400 in China, which implemented a stringent one-child policy in the 1980s.Challenging the prevailing narrative, Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), says, “India’s population debate needs a shift from fear-mongering to empowering policies. The declining fertility rate is not a crisis but an opportunity to invest in health, education, and gender equality.”



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