Arizona (11) As Pennsylvania leaned leftward, Arizona went right — making Biden the only Democratic candidate it has opted for this century.It was one of the tightest races of 2020, with Biden triumphing by just 10,457 votes.The defeated Trump hopes frustrations over his victor’s immigration policy will swing the Grand Canyon State, which shares a border with Mexico, back in his favor.Super PAC American Values says it has already secured enough signatures to get Robert F. Kennedy Jr on the ballot, which could complicate either main party candidate’s prospects.Nevada (6) Nevada — the swing state with the smallest proportion of college graduates — hasn’t voted for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 but conservatives are convinced they can strike a blow for their cause in November.So far, polls are proving them right, with the historically Democratic Latino community increasingly leaning Republican in recent election cycles.A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll gave Trump a six-point lead in February but it is another state where Kennedy aims to be competitive and Trump’s lead widens slightly in a three-way race.Wisconsin (10) Hillary Clinton was rewarded with defeat in Wisconsin after giving the state a wide berth during the 2016 campaign.As with Midwestern neighbor Michigan, it was a different story when Trump’s opponent was Biden, who turned a 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000 winning margin for Democrats.Polls suggest Wisconsin will be one of the closest 2024 races. Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is just one percent — well within the margin of error.Republicans see the state as a winnable prize and key target, with the party holding its summer convention in the largest city, Milwaukee.
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