By PTI
KYIV: Ukrainians defied pressure from Moscow with a national show of flag-waving unity Wednesday, while the US warned that Russia had added as many as 7,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders despite Kremlin declarations that forces were being pulled back from the region.
While a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine did not materialize as feared, the United States and its allies maintained that the threat is still strong, with Europe’s security and economic stability in the balance.
Russia has massed more than 150,000 troops east, north and south of Ukraine, according to Western estimates.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that he wants a peaceful path out of the crisis, and US President Joe Biden promised that the US would continue to give diplomacy “every chance,” but he struck a sceptical tone about Moscow’s intentions.
Biden also insisted that Washington and its allies would not “sacrifice basic principles” respecting Ukraine sovereignty.
Russian Defence Ministry video showed a trainload of armoured vehicles moving across a bridge away from Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
It also announced that more tank units were being loaded on trains to move back to their permanent bases after training exercises.
But at the same time, Russia continued war games near Ukraine’s borders and across its vast territory.
A senior US administration official said the West detected that Russia had increased its force near Ukraine by 7,000 troops, with some arriving as recently as Wednesday, and that there had been a marked increase in false claims by Russians that the Kremlin might use as pretext for an invasion.
The official said those claims included reports of unmarked graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces, statements that the US and Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons, and claims that the West is funnelling in guerrillas to kill Ukrainians.
The official was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive operations and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
The official did not provide underlying evidence for the assertions.
The US and Europe are maintaining threats of harsh sanctions.
Trust between East and West remains elusive.
“We haven’t seen a pullback,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC News.
“He (Putin) can pull the trigger. He can pull it today. He can pull it tomorrow. He can pull it next week. The forces are there if he wants to renew aggression against Ukraine.”
State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US had seen “more Russian forces, not fewer.”
Asked why Russians would claim to be withdrawing when government intelligence, commercial satellite photos and social media videos showed no evidence of that, Price said: “This is the Russian playbook, to paint a picture publicly, while they do the opposite.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance also had not seen “any withdrawal of Russian forces,” as did multiple European governments.
Before chairing a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, he said: “If they really start to withdraw forces, that’s something we will welcome, but that remains to be seen.
” In the meantime, the alliance is examining this week how and when to rapidly dispatch troops and equipment to countries closest to Russia and the Black Sea region should Moscow order an invasion.
NATO member countries on Wednesday examined new ways to bolster the defenses of nations on the organization’s eastern flank as Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine fuels one of Europe’s biggest security crises in decades.
Over two days at NATO headquarters in Brussels, defense ministers were to discuss how and when to rapidly dispatch troops and equipment to countries closest to Russia and the Black Sea region should Moscow order an invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his counterparts also plan to weigh the possibility of stationing troops longer-term in southeast Europe, possibly starting later this year.
The troops would mirror the presence of some 5,000 servicemembers that have been stationed in allies Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland on a rotating basis in recent years.
The U.S. has started to deploy 5,000 troops to Poland and Romania.
Britain is sending hundreds of soldiers to Poland and offering more warships and planes.
Germany, the Netherlands and Norway are sending additional troops to Lithuania.
Denmark and Spain are providing jets for air policing.
“The fact that we have deployed more NATO troops on the ground, more naval assets, more aircraft, all of that sends a very clear message,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.
“I think there is no room for any miscalculation in Moscow about our commitment to defending allies.”
The deployment has come in response to a formidable challenge.
Over the last four months, Russia is estimated to have amassed around 60% of its entire land forces and a significant portion of its air force to the north and east of Ukraine, as well as in neighboring Belarus.
Moscow has appeared ready to repeat its 2014 invasion of Ukraine, but on a grander scale.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants NATO, the world’s biggest security organization, to stop expanding.
He demands that the U.S.-led alliance pull its troops and equipment out of countries that joined after 1997, almost half of NATO’s 30-strong ranks.
NATO cannot accept his terms.
It’s founding treaty commits to an “Open Door” policy for European countries that want to join, and a mutual defense clause guarantees that all members will come to the defense of an ally under threat.
Ukraine, though, is not a member and NATO, as an organization, is not willing to come to its defense.
“We have to understand that Ukraine is a partner. We support Ukraine. But for all NATO allies, we provide 100% security guarantees,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.
That said, some member countries are helping Ukraine more directly, such as the U.S., Britain and Canada.
“We will be providing both lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine. This is a very significant issue for us all,” Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said.
But the “massive costs” promised to Putin should he order an invasion would be economic and political, mostly in the form of sanctions, which are not part of NATO’s remit.
The alliance has offered Russia a series of security talks, including on arms control.
Over the last two days, Russia has said that it was returning some troops and weapons to bases, but Stoltenberg said the allies saw no concrete sign of a drawdown and concern that that Russia might invade Ukraine persists.
“They have always moved forces back and forth, so just that we see movement of forces, that doesn’t confirm a real withdrawal,” Stoltenberg said.
“The trend of the last weeks and months has been a steady increase in the Russian capabilities close to Ukraine’s borders.”
Russia poses no direct security threat to any NATO country, but the alliance is concerned about the fallout from any conflict in Ukraine, like a surge of people fleeing fighting across European borders, or possible cyber and disinformation attacks.
The US is ready to respond “decisively” to a Russian attack on Ukraine which is still very much a possibility, President Joe Biden has said, urging Moscow to step back from the brink of war.
Providing an update on the crisis involving Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday, Biden said the United States was prepared no matter what happens.
“We are ready with diplomacy, to be engaged in diplomacy with Russia and our Allies and partners to improve stability and security in Europe as a whole. And we are ready to respond decisively to a Russian attack on Ukraine, which is still very much a possibility,” he said.
“An invasion remains distinctly possible. That’s why I’ve asked several times that all Americans in Ukraine leave now before it’s too late to leave safely. It is why we have temporarily relocated our embassy from Kyiv to Lviv in western Ukraine, approaching the Polish border,” Biden said as his Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin left for a trip to the region amidst an escalating crisis in Europe.
Biden said the US is still open for diplomacy to resolve the issue while stressing that more than 150,000 Russian troops remain on the Ukrainian border.
“The Russian Defence Ministry reported today that some military units are leaving their positions near Ukraine. That would be good, but we have not yet verified that. We have not yet verified that Russian military units are returning to their home bases. Our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” he said.
Biden said if Russia attacks Ukraine in the days or weeks ahead, the human cost for Ukraine and the strategic cost for Russia will be immense.
“If Russia attacks Ukraine, it’ll be met with overwhelming international condemnation.
The world will not forget that Russia chose needless death and destruction,” he said.
“And make no mistake: The United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power. An attack against one NATO country is an attack against all of us,” he asserted.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied it has plans to attack Ukraine but demanded that NATO never admit Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations as members and the military alliance roll back troop deployments in former Soviet bloc nations.
Drawing a parallel with World War II, Biden said, “World War II was a war of necessity. But if Russia attacked Ukraine, it would be a war of choice or a war without cause or reason.”
“I say these things not to provoke but to speak the truth. Because the truth matters, accountability matters. If Russia does invade in the days and weeks ahead, the human cost for Ukraine will be immense,” the US president said.
Biden said the United States and NATO are not a threat to Russia.
“Ukraine is not threatening Russia. Neither the US nor NATO have missiles in Ukraine. We do not have plans to put them there as well,” he said.
The US president also ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine.
“While I will not send American servicemen to fight in Ukraine, we have supplied the Ukrainian military the equipment to help them defend themselves.
We provided training and advice and intelligence for the same purpose,” he said.
Biden said the West is united and galvanised.
“Today, our NATO allies and the alliance are as unified and determined as it has ever been. And the source of our unbreakable strength continues to be the power, resilience, and universal appeal of our shared democratic values. Cause this is about more than just Russia and Ukraine,” he said.
Biden said if Russia proceeds, The US will rally the world to oppose its “aggression”.
“We will put intense pressure on their largest and most significant financial institutions and key industries. These measures are ready to go as soon if Russia moves. We’ll impose long-term consequences that will undermine Russia’s ability to compete economically and strategically,” he said.
“And when it comes to Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany, if Russia further invades Ukraine, it will not happen,” he added.
Ukraine shows unity as West sees no sign of Russian pullback
Ukrainians defied pressure from Moscow with a national show of flag-waving unity Wednesday, while the West warned that it saw no sign of a promised pullback of Russian troops from Ukraine’s borders despite Kremlin declarations of a withdrawal.
While a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday did not materialize, the United States and its allies maintain that the threat remains strong, with Europe’s security and economic stability in the balance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled he wants a peaceful path out of the crisis, and U.S.
President Joe Biden promised that the U.S. would continue to give diplomacy “every chance,” but he struck a skeptical tone about Moscow’s intentions.
Biden also insisted that Washington and its allies would not “sacrifice basic principles” respecting Ukraine sovereignty.
Russia has massed about 150,000 troops east, north and south of Ukraine.
Moscow denies it has any plans to invade and announced a pullback of some forces and weapons, though it gave few details.
Even though Putin has not committed to a full withdrawal, the Russian statements also seemed to lower the political temperature following weeks of escalating East-West tensions.
Russian Defense Ministry video showed a trainload of armored vehicles moving across a bridge away from Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
It also announced that more tank units of the Western Military District were being loaded on trains to move back to their permanent bases after training exercises.
“We haven’t seen a pullback,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC News.
“He (Putin) can pull the trigger. He can pull it today. He can pull it tomorrow. He can pull it next week. The forces are there if he wants to renew aggression against Ukraine.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance also saw no sign of decreasing troop levels around Ukraine.
“At the moment, we have not seen any withdrawal of Russian forces,” he said, before chairing a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
“If they really start to withdraw forces, that’s something we will welcome but that remains to be seen.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy similarly dismissed the Russian withdrawal claims, noting the lack of evidence of a pullback.
He has repeatedly sought to project calm as well as strength during the crisis, declaring Wednesday a “Day of National Unity.”
“We are united by a desire to happily live in peace,” Zelenskyy said in an address to the nation.
“We can defend our home only if we stay united.”
Across the country, Ukrainians of all ages waved flags in the streets and from apartment windows.
Hundreds unfolded a 200-meter (650-foot) flag at Kyiv’s Olimpiyskiy Stadium, while another was draped in the center of a shopping mall in the capital.
In the government-controlled part of Ukraine’s eastern region of Luhansk, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian troops since 2014, residents stretched another huge flag across a street.
Russia wants the West to keep Ukraine and other former Soviet nations out of NATO, halt weapons deployments near Russian borders and roll back forces from Eastern Europe.
The U.S. and its allies have roundly rejected those demands, but they offered to engage in talks with Russia on ways to bolster security in Europe.
Speaking after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin said Tuesday that the West agreed to discuss a ban on missile deployment to Europe, restrictions on military drills and other confidence-building measures issues that Moscow put on the table years ago.
He added that Russia was willing to discuss those issues, but only in conjunction “with the main issues that are of primary importance for us.”
While Scholz reiterated that NATO’s eastward expansion “is not on the agenda, everyone knows that very well,” Putin retorted that Moscow will not be assuaged by such assurances.
“They are telling us it won’t happen tomorrow,” Putin said.
“Well, when will it happen? The day after tomorrow? We want to solve this issue now as part of negotiation process through peaceful means.”
On Wednesday, Russian fighter jets flew training missions over neighboring Belarus and paratroopers held shooting drills at firing ranges there as part of massive war games that the West feared could be used as cover for an invasion of Ukraine.
Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei reaffirmed that all Russian troops and weapons will leave the country when the maneuvers end Sunday.
Russia has mocked Western warnings about an imminent invasion as “paranoia” and “madness.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed sarcastically at warnings of Wednesday’s invasion, saying that Russian officials had a good sleep.
Asked by German daily Welt if Russia was going to attack Wednesday, Russia’s ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov quipped: “Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday.”
“There won’t be an escalation next week either, on in the week after, or in the coming month,” he said.
But British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Sky News that there has been no evidence of a Russian withdrawal.
“In fact, we’ve seen continued buildup of things like field hospitals and strategic weapons systems,” he said.
On Tuesday, a series of cyberattacks knocked out the websites of the Ukrainian army, the defense ministry and major banks, and Serhii Demediuk, the No.2 official at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, blamed Russia.
“The action continued a hybrid aggression of the Russian Federation,” Demediuk told The Associated Press, adding that his group was was working “to stem the attacks and track down their source.
The Kremlin denied any involvement.
Demediuk said the attacks were intended to sow panic, but Ukrainian authorities moved quickly to restore the websites.
In Moscow, Russian lawmakers sent an appeal to Putin urging him to recognize rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine as independent states, where Russia has supported rebels in a conflict that has killed over 14,000 in nearly eight years.
Putin signaled that he wasn’t inclined to back the motion, which would effectively shatter a 2015 peace deal that was a diplomatic coup for Moscow.
High gas costs from Ukraine threat pose Biden political risk
With the continuing threat of Russia invading Ukraine, a foreign policy crisis is colliding with one of President Joe Biden’s political vulnerabilities: Rising gasoline prices at home.
Americans are already dismayed by Inflation at a 40-year high, and Biden is warning that gas prices could get higher if Russian President Vladimir Putin chooses to invade.
It’s a recognition of Biden’s own risks ahead of the 2022 midterm elections: Inflation has become an albatross for Democrats despite the nation’s strong economic growth last year.
“We’re prepared to deploy all the tools and authority at our disposal to provide relief at the gas pump,” the US president declared Tuesday.
“We are taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets and offset rising prices.”
The cost of crude oil, and gasoline, began to climb over the past month as Putin massed forces on the Ukrainian border.
The diplomatic back-and-forth has whipsawed financial and commodity markets as investors try to price in what an armed conflict and US sanctions against Russia would mean for the global economy.
Even though the broad US economy can absorb higher energy prices, American families have been seeing sharp increases in the price of food, energy and other goods.
Forecasts from JPMorgan and other investment firms suggest that crude oil, already at about $95 a barrel, could exceed $125 a barrel due to tight supplies, which an invasion would intensify.
Biden wants to put the focus on how the Ukraine situation is contributing to higher gasoline prices, but costs at the pump already were dramatically higher from a year ago.
Efforts to coax more oil production in the US and abroad have largely failed.
Republicans most certainly won’t give Biden a pass due to tensions abroad.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell criticises the president for higher energy and food prices, contending that “the Biden administration seems less interested in trying to solve this problem than in trying to persuade families the pain is just in their heads”.
In a December AP-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research poll, most Americans — 85% — said they’d experienced higher than usual prices for both groceries and gas in recent months.
And in an open-ended question about top issues for the government to be working on, 10% named gas prices and energy costs, a sign of the political challenge confronting Biden.
“Given the world that we’re in, any increase in prices of commodities, even if that is transitory, even if the Federal Reserve generally tries to look past obvious supply shocks in making its decisions, it adds to the policy conundrum,” said Gerard DiPippo, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
“It puts the White House in a bind.”
Biden did not spell out what specific steps his administration would take to reduce oil prices should the situation in Ukraine worsen.
In late November he ordered the release of a record 50 million barrels of oil from the US strategic reserve to reduce price pressures.
Gasoline prices did fall in the weeks after the oil was released, though prices have since eclipsed the levels at the time when Biden announced the drawdown.
He could order another release if diplomacy fails to cause the Russians to pull back.
Members of Congress are looking for other ways to ease the pain.
Democratic Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, both up for reelection, are already calling for a suspension of the federal gasoline tax.
The White House has yet to endorse or rule out this option.
“What people are focusing on is what we can do immediately,” said Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.
“People need relief right now, so this is a short-term way to do it.”
Gas prices are up nearly 40% from a year ago and more than 6% over the past month, according to AAA.
Suspending the federal tax of 18.4 cents a gallon would not offset the price increases that occurred recently as Russia threatened Ukraine.
And there is no guarantee that energy companies would pass all of the savings on to consumers.
It’s also unclear whether there is enough support in the Senate for a gas tax holiday to go forward.
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska equated it to a one-off “sugar high” that could wear off quickly.
“I don’t think that’s the solution here,” Murkowski said.
“This doesn’t solve the problem for people paying high prices at the pump. This is a we’re going to stop you from thinking about it by giving you a little bit of an offset here.”
Adjusted for general inflation, gas prices are not necessarily that high.
Average prices were generally higher from 2011 to 2014 during Barack Obama’s presidency and during George W. Bush’s second term, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Jason Furman, a former Obama aide, Harvard University economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that the US economy is at a point where it can withstand higher oil prices, though pockets of the country could be hurt.
High prices would, in fact, lead to more oil-related investments that could cause prices to eventually fall.
Furman said the best choice Biden could make is what he did on Tuesday, warning the American people that prices could rise if war occurs.
“There’s just not a lot that the president can do,” Furman said.
“A certain amount of what the president should do is level with people that these events may drive prices up temporarily and that prices will also come back down.”
