LUCKNOW: The 17 reserved seats have a different flavour in the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh. The strategy to win them is charted differently. The different flavours are because these seats are won not on national issues. Here basic needs of life matter more than symbols and narratives. The parties capable of getting traction right on the ground come out victorious on those 17 seats, which make the foundation of the outcome of the rest of the 63 Lok Sabha constituencies of the most crucial state of Hindi heartland. BJP has been striking that formula on winning maximum reserved seats in the last two Lok Sabha polls. While in 2014, the strike rate of the saffron brigade was cent per cent, it lost two of 17 to the BSP, the political outfit with the strongest claim on Dalit premises, in 2019. These 17 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes in UP including Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur, Hardoi, Misrikh, Etawah, Bahraich, Jalaun, Mohanlalganj Kaushambi, Barabanki, Lalganj, Machhlishahar, Bansgaon and Robertsganj that are spread across the state from western to eastern UP. Barring Nagina in western UP and Lalganj in the far east, BJP had won all 15 seats in the 2019 general election despite the presence of formidable SP-BSP grand alliance on the battle field. The two seats which the BJP lost had gone to the BSP. The significance of reserved seats in UP is attributed to the substantial presence of SC voters in every seat as they make up 21 per cent of the total population of UP. This 21 per cent is broadly divided into 11.7% Jatavs (biggest group), 3.3% Pasis, 3.15 % Valmikis, 1.2 % Gond, Dhanuk, Khatiks and 1.6% others. This time, the ruling BJP had been treading very cautiously and expanded the reach of NDA by scrupulously stitching in the smaller caste-based groups including Jayant Chaudhury- led RLD, OP Rajbhar-led SBSP, Sanjay Nishad-led NISHAD, Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (S), to woo the castes represented by them. In fact, during the last two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP kept its focus on non-Jatav SCs, non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes managing a diverse caste matrix minus Muslims and sailed through impressively. 2024 elections: Congress rejigs UP team, names Ajai Rai as party chiefThe party left the Jatavs as they always consolidated in favour of BSP and Yadavs in favour of SP. As per its strategy, the saffron brigade activated its SC cells and asked the leaders to reach out to the Dalits with the message that their interest was safe under the Modi government while highlighting pro-poor welfare schemes, the benefit of which has reached all the sections. Pitted against the ruling alliance is the INDIA bloc to stop the saffron juggernaut. However, it seems to be an uphill task for the opposition under the present scenario when the opposition is represented just by the SP and the Congress. Moreover, when the ruling alliance convincingly survived the 2019 grand SP-BSP alliance which was much better placed in the caste matrix, the present scenario in the opposition camp seems to be a bit less impressive. Notably, the loosening hold of the BSP over SC voters is also a reason for the emergence of the BJP as the first choice of non-Jatav Dalits. As per the political experts, despite riding on its ‘PDA’ which stands for ‘Pichchhda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak,’ the Samajwadi Party will find it difficult to convince the Dalits who take SP’s past regimes as hostile dispensations towards them as then their lands were grabbed and they were intimidated and subjugated by powerful Yadavs in many pockets of the state. On the other, BSP is no longer a force to reckon with among the Dalits as it has lost all its sheen and failed to open its account in 2014. However, it emerged as a bigger beneficiary of the 2019 alliance with SP as it won 10 Lok Sabha seats and SP failed to take its tally beyond five, but the performance of the BSP on reserved seats was dismal. In the present election, when BSP’s solo sojourn will make the BJP’s task easier on the reserved constituencies where the non-Dalit voters will also play a deciding role.Matrix of reserved seatsNagina:2019: Girish Chandra (BSP) winning margin: 5683782014: Yashwant Singh (BJP), winning margin: 3678252009: Yashvir Singh (SP), Winning margin: 234815Bulandshahr:2019: Bhola Singh (BJP); winning margin: 6,81,3212014: Bhola Singh (BJP), winning margin: 6.04,4492009: Kamlesh(SP), Winning margin: 2,36,257Hathras:2019: Rajvir Diler (BSP) winning margin: 6,84,2992014: Anshul Verma, winning margin: 3,605012009: Kishan Lal Diler (RLD), Winning margin: 2,47,927Agra:2019: SPS Baghel (BJP), winning margin: 6,46,8752014: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), winning margin: 5,83,7162009: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), Winning margin: 2,03,697Shajahanpur:2019:Arun Kumar Sagar (BJP), winning margin: 6,88,9902014:Krishna Raj (BJP), winning margin: 5,25,1322009:Mithilesh (SP), Winning margin: 2,57,033Hardoi:2019: Jaiprakash (BJP), winning margin: 5,68,1432014: Anshul Verma (BJP), winning margin: 3,60,5012009: Usha Verma (SP), Winning margin: 2,94,030Misrikh:2019: Ashok Kumar Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 5,34,4292014: Anju Bala (BJP), winning margin: 4,12,5752009: AShok Kumar Rawat (BSP), Winning margin: 2,07,627Etawah:2019: Ram Shanker Katheria (BJP), winning margin: 5,22,1192014: Ashok kumar Dohrey (BJP), winning margin: 4,39, 6462009: Prem Das (SP), Winning margin: 2,78,776Bahraich :2019: Akshaibar Lal (BJP), winning margin: 5,25,9822014: Savitiri Bai Phule (BJP), winning margin: 4,32, 3922009: Kamal Kishore (INC), Winning margin: 1,60,005Mohanlalganj:2019: Kaushal Kishore (BJP), winning margin: 6,29,9992014: Kaushal Kishore (BJP), winning margin: 4,55, 2742009: Sushila Saroj (SP), Winning margin: 2,56,367Jalaun:2019: BP Singh Verma (BJP), winning margin: 5,81,7632014: BP Singh Verma (BJP), winning margin: 5,48,6312009: Ghanshyam Anuragi (SP), Winning margin: 2,83,023Kaushambi:2019: Vinod Kumar Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,83,0092014: Vinod Kumar Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,31,7242009: Shailendra Kumar (SP), Winning margin: 2,46,501Barabanki:2019: Upendra Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 5,35,9172014: Priyanka Rawat (BJP), winning margin: 4,54, 2142009: PL Punia (INC), Winning margin: 3,28,418Lalganj:2019: Sangeeta Azad (BSP), winning margin: 5,18,8202014: Neelam Sonkar (BJP), winning margin: 3,24,0162009: Baliram (BSP), Winning margin: 2,07,998Machhlishahr:2019: Bhola Nath (BP SAROJ) (BJP), winning margin: 4,88,3972014: Ram Charitra Nishad (BJP), winning margin: 4,38, 2102009: Tufani Saroj (SP), Winning margin: 2,23,152Bansgaon:2019: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), winning margin: 5,46,6732014: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), winning margin: 4,17, 9592009: Kamlesh Paswan (BJP), Winning margin: 2,23,011Robertsganj:2019: Pakauri Lal Kol (AD-S), winning margin: 4,47,9142014: Chhote Lal (BJP), winning margin: 3,78,2112009: Pakauri Lal (SP), Winning margin: 2,16, 478Shah the go-to man for BJP to oversee govt formation in UP, prepare party for 2024 general elections
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