NEW DELHI: Prohibiting the sale of tobacco to people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by 2095, said a global study.The study said overall, more lung cancer deaths could be avoided in men (45.8% of all lung cancer deaths) than in women (30.9% of all lung cancer deaths).Published in The Lancet Public Health, the study from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD), Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators, said that prohibiting the sale of tobacco to people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by 2095.“The findings indicated that globally, 1.2 million lung cancer deaths (40.2% of all lung cancer deaths) that were expected to occur among the studied generation (the 2006–2010 birth cohort) would be avoided if tobacco smoking were eliminated,” it added.It said that the largest number of avoidable lung cancer deaths, in absolute terms, was in low- and middle-income countries, accounting for 65% of all potentially avoidable lung cancer deaths globally.Smoking is a leading risk factor for preventable death and ill health globally, accounting for more than one in ten deaths in 2021. Tobacco smoking is the most important risk factor for lung cancer and in 2019 was estimated to cause more than 67% of lung cancer deaths globally.Lung cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and cause of cancer death worldwide; it is responsible for approximately 1.8 million deaths per year.The study also said that reducing smoking rates to just 5% by 2050 could increase life expectancy by a year among men and 0.2 years among women. It also added that accelerating efforts to end smoking globally could prevent 876 million years of lives lost.“We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking,” said senior author, Professor Stein Emil Vollset, at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).Smoking rates are projected to drop to 21% in men and 4% in women by that time. While rates of smoking have fallen substantially over the past three decades, the pace of decline varies and has slowed in many countries. Cancers, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are – and will continue to be – the leading causes of premature deaths from smoking. Together, these conditions account for 85% of potentially avoidable years of life lost (YLLs) – a measure of premature deaths. Implementation of new tobacco control policies will be crucial in avoiding additional deaths due to smoking and ensuring global smoking rates continue to decline, the authors said.
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