NEW DELHI: India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains this year, experts said, as the World Meteorological Department (WMO) forecast a higher possibility of neutral El Nino conditions during the upcoming season.El Nino, a key driver of global climatic patterns, is synonymous with weaker monsoons in India. Its reverse phenomenon, La Nina, is known for bountiful monsoons. The weak La Nina event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived and end by May. El Nino refers to large-scale warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while La Niña is the opposite.“It looks like India may receive normal monsoon this year as global forecast suggests a higher probability that the neutral condition of El Nino could prevail from June to September,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather, a private weather solution company.Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal.Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that there is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during March-May 2025, increasing to 70% for April-June 2025. ENSO stands for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. The IMD also predicted a weaker El Nino condition in its season forecast in early March.Meanwhile, IMD and Skymet Weather will announce the first seasonal forecast of the monsoon in early April.
Source link
