Officially, Yogi’s no-nonsense, tough-guy approach to law and order issues is being touted as the reason why BJP should be voted in again. This “Temple Plus Tough Leader” formula does work in the urban zones and badlands of UP, but not in an even way. The farmers of Western UP, the Yadavs of south-central zones aligned to Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, and the unemployed youths of the most backward castes form a trinity that is shaking Yogi’s foundations.If Priyanka Gandhi’s bet on women as a vote bank gives renewed mileage to the Congress, or the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party into UP shows some strength, things may queer the pitch for the BJP — though as of now, the fractured opposition is more of a help than a hindrance for the ruling party. Dalit votes are largely clueless this time and again, this will help the BJP more.Nevertheless, how long can socio-economic issues be overwhelmed by charisma and law enforcement? That is the question blowing in the easterly winds of UP, the famous Purvayya.Seasoned political observers, as well as local caste chieftains and opportunists, will now be looking at Yogi’s victory margins — in terms of overall seats as well as seat-wise gaps in victory. This will lead to a fresh realignment of political forces that would be visible closer to the next general elections. UP has seen a Modi wave and a Yogi wave but waves are deceptive because they are difficult to repeat. We saw in the last Union cabinet reshuffle that this was well-recognised by BJP strategists as they weighed in caste/community-based equations that went against Modi’s official spiel as a leader who goes for performance appraisals.
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