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How probable is war?An Israel-Hezbollah war “would be a total disaster,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last month, amid a flurry of shuttle diplomacy by the US and Europe.Iran-backed Hezbollah seemed caught off-guard by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, a regional ally. Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border strikes, escalating gradually. Israel also carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon.More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 20 civilians, have been killed on Lebanon’s side, and 18 on Israel’s.Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides. There are no immediate prospects for their return.Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that war is increasingly probable unless the militants withdraw from the border.Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hasn’t threatened to initiate war but warned of a fight “without limits” if Israel does. Hezbollah says it won’t agree to a ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border before there’s one in Gaza and has rebuffed a US proposal to move its forces several kilometers (miles) back from the border, according to Lebanese officials.Despite the rhetoric, neither side appears to want war, said Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon. However, “a miscalculation could potentially trigger a wider conflict that would be very difficult to control,” he said.
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Israel and Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable
