HOW PROBABLE IS WAR?An Israel-Hezbollah war “would be a total disaster,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last month, amid a flurry of shuttle diplomacy by the US and Europe.Iran-backed Hezbollah seemed caught off-guard by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, a regional ally. Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border strikes, escalating gradually. Israel also carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon.More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 20 civilians, have been killed on Lebanon’s side, and 18 on Israel’s.Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides. There are no immediate prospects for their return.Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that war is increasingly probable unless the militants withdraw from the border.Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hasn’t threatened to initiate war but warned of a fight “without limits” if Israel does. Hezbollah says it won’t agree to a ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border before there’s one in Gaza and has rebuffed a US proposal to move its forces several kilometes (miles) back from the border, according to Lebanese officials.Despite the rhetoric, neither side appears to want war, said Andrea Teneti, spokesman for the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon. However, “a miscalculation could potentially trigger a wider conflict that would be very difficult to control,” he said.HOW PREPARED ARE THEY?Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have expanded capabilities since 2006 — yet both countries also are more fragile.In Lebanon, four years of economic crisis have crippled public institutions, including its army and electrical grid, and eroded its health system. The country hosts more than 1 million Syrian refugees.Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario in late October. It projected the forcible displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days.About 87,000 Lebanese are displaced from the border area. While the government is relying on international organizations to fund the response, many groups working in Lebanon can’t maintain existing programs.The U.N. refugee agency has provided supplies to collective shelters and given emergency cash to some 400 families in south Lebanon, spokesperson Lisa Abou Khaled said. The agency doesn’t have funds to support large numbers of displaced in the event of war, she said.Aid group Doctors Without Borders said it has stockpiled some 10 tons of medical supplies and backup fuel for hospital generators in areas most likely to be affected by a widening conflict, in anticipation of a blockade.Israel is feeling economic and social strain from the war in Gaza, which is expected to cost over $50 billion, or about 10 percent of national economic activity through the end of 2024, according to the Bank of Israel. Costs would rise sharply if there’s war with Lebanon.“No one wants this war, or wishes it on anyone,” said Tal Beeri, of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focusing on northern Israel security. But he said he believes an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, arguing that diplomatic solutions appear unlikely and would only allow Hezbollah’s strategic threats to increase.Israel has evacuated 60,000 residents from towns nearest the border, where there’s no warning time for rocket launches because of the proximity of Hezbollah squads.In a war, there would be no point in additional evacuations since the militia’s rockets and missiles can reach all of Israel.After the Oct. 7 attack, the war in Gaza had broad domestic support, even if there’s now a growing debate over its direction. Around half of Israelis would support war with Hezbollah as a last resort for restoring border security, according to recent polling by the think tank Israel Democracy Institute.In Lebanon, some have criticized Hezbollah for exposing the country to another potentially devastating war. Others support the group’s limited entry into the conflict and believe Hezbollah’s arsenal will deter Israel from escalating.
Source link
