India’s R-naught value which indicates the spread of COVID-19 was recorded at 4 this week, suggesting a very high infection transmission rate, according to a preliminary analysis by IIT Madras predicting the peak of the third wave between February 1-15.R-naught or R0 indicates the number of people an infected person can spread the disease to. A pandemic is considered to end if this value goes below 1.Based on preliminary analysis by computational modeling done by IIT Madras, which was shared with PTI, the R0 value was close to 2.9 nationally in the past week (December 25 to December 31). The number was recorded at 4 this week (January 1-6).Explaining further, Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, said R0 depends on three things — transmissibility probability, contact rate and the expected time interval in which infection can happen.”Now, with the increase in quarantine measures or restrictions, maybe the contact rate will go down and then in that case R0 can decrease. So, based on our preliminary analysis, which is just based on the last two weeks, we can tell these numbers, but again, these numbers can change based on how much affirmative action is taken with respect to social gathering and all,” he told PTI.
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