Adequate rainfall is also expected in the core monsoon zone comprising Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. However, the northeastern region and the hilly states of Northern India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.A weaker La Niña—characterised by cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which typically supports good monsoon conditions and a neutral El Niño phase are expected to prevent any significant weakening of the monsoon.“The remnants of La Niña and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome,” said Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet.“Preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase,” he further explained.As per Skymet’s monthly forecast, rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA in June, 102 per cent in July, 108 per cent in August, and 104 per cent in September.
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