India could be more impacted if imports from Russia get hit as New Delhi is dependent on Moscow for crude oil, petroleum products, coal, gold, metals and fertilisers. These are essentials. As it is rising crude oil prices, more so after the outbreak of the war has already had an impact on the Indian economy.It also has a cascading effect on inflation, which is on the rise in the recent months. The rising inflation at a time when economic growth may pick up after the Covid pandemic is not a welcome development as it has put Reserve Bank of India in a dilemma on how to find a balance between growth and inflation. This is a challenging task for monetary policy makers.The war has come at a time when India’s trade particularly goods exports have started looking up, clocking over 20 per cent growth in 2021-22. India’s exports growth has not been good in the last few years remaining at around $300 billion and it is for the first time it is expected to touch or cross $400 billion mark this financial year.Apart from sanctions impacting crude oil and inflation as a consequence, the exports could be further impacted because of freight charges going up in the face of war. This will make logistics and transactions cost higher impacting the already wafer-thin margin in exports.Overall, the earlier the issue gets resolved, the better it would be for not only India but the world and rightly India and international communities are working toward early end to the war as it is in nobody’s interest.As Bertrand Russell said, “war does not determine who is right – only who is left.”War and violence never solved anything but leaves only pain. Wiser sense must prevail among warring countries and global community to end this early.(IPA Service)Views are personal
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