Fortunes changed last year when another Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to cut Russia’s land corridor to Crimea. Kyiv’s forces suffered heavy casualties when they made botched attempts to break through multilayered Russian defenses.As Western support for Ukraine dwindled amid political infighting in the U.S. and Kyiv ran short of weapons and ammunition, Russian troops have intensified pressure along the over 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, relying on hundreds of thousands of volunteer soldiers and the newly supplied weapons that replaced early losses.After capturing the key eastern stronghold of Avdiivka last month, Russia has pushed deeper into the Donetsk region as Zelenskyy pleads with the West for more weapons.Testifying before the U.S. Senate last week, CIA Director William Burns emphasized the urgency of U.S. military aid, saying: “It’s our assessment that with supplemental assistance, Ukraine can hold its own on the front lines through 2024 and into early 2025.”Without it, he said, “Ukraine is likely to lose ground — and probably significant ground — in 2024,” adding, “you’re going to see more Avdiivkas.”The dithering Western support has put Ukraine in an increasingly precarious position, analysts say.”Russia is gaining momentum in its assault on Ukraine amid stalled Western aid, making the coming months critical to the direction of conflict,” said Ben Barry, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, in an analysis. “In a worst-case scenario, parts of Kyiv’s front line could be at risk of collapse.”Putin demurred when asked how deep into Ukraine he would like to forge, but he repeatedly stated that the line of contact should be pushed long enough to protect Russian territory from long-range weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal. Some members of his entourage are less reticent, laying out plans for new land grabs.Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council who has sought to curry Putin’s favor with regular hawkish statements, mentioned Kyiv and the Black Sea port of Odesa.”Ukraine is Russia,” he bluntly declared recently, ruling out any talks with Zelenskyy’s government and suggesting a “peace formula” that would see Kyiv’s surrender and Moscow’s annexation of the entire country.Russian defense analysts are divided over Moscow’s ability to pursue such ambitious goals.Sergei Poletaev, a Moscow-based military expert, said the Russian army has opted for a strategy of draining Ukraine resources with attacks along the front line in the hope of achieving a point when Kyiv’s defenses would collapse.”What matters is the damage inflicted to the enemy, making the enemy weaken faster,” he said.Others say Russia’s attacks seeking to exhaust Ukraine’s military are costly for Moscow, too.Russian and Ukrainian forces are locked in a stalemate that gives Moscow little chance of a breakthrough, said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies think tank.”The Ukrainian defense is quite strong, and it doesn’t allow Russian troops to achieve anything more substantial than tactical gains,” he said.Such a positional war of attrition “could be waged for years,” Pukhov added, with both parties waiting for the other to “face internal changes resulting in a policy shift.”
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