By Express News Service
NEW DELHI: While India has so far managed to steer clear of the heat of the global slowdown, rating agencies feel the coming year will be different, as they continue to cut the country’s GDP growth projection for 2023.
In the latest round of revisions, Goldman Sachs, Crisil and Icra have slashed India’s growth prospects. While Goldman Sachs has cut India’s growth projection to 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from 6.9% growth this year, Crisil revised down India’s FY23 growth forecast to 7% from 7.3% projected earlier. For its part, Icra halved the FY23 second-quarter growth estimate to 6.5% citing higher input costs and low external demand.
“We expect growth to be a tale of two halves in 2023, with a slowdown in the first half,” Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Sunday. “In the second half, we expect growth to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, the net export drag declines, and the investment cycle picks up,” Sengupta added.
Crisil, which sees GDP growth further slowing down to 6% in fiscal 2024, cited the slowdown in global growth that has started impacting India’s exports and industrial activity. “This will test the resilience of domestic demand,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.
India’s merchandise exports dropped 17% in October 2022 to $29.73 billion from $35.78 billion in the same month a year ago, while merchandise trade deficit rose to $27 billion. According to Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra, Q2FY23 economic growth will moderate on account of mixed crop output and the ripple effect of global slowdown.
NEW DELHI: While India has so far managed to steer clear of the heat of the global slowdown, rating agencies feel the coming year will be different, as they continue to cut the country’s GDP growth projection for 2023.
In the latest round of revisions, Goldman Sachs, Crisil and Icra have slashed India’s growth prospects. While Goldman Sachs has cut India’s growth projection to 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from 6.9% growth this year, Crisil revised down India’s FY23 growth forecast to 7% from 7.3% projected earlier. For its part, Icra halved the FY23 second-quarter growth estimate to 6.5% citing higher input costs and low external demand.
“We expect growth to be a tale of two halves in 2023, with a slowdown in the first half,” Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Sunday. “In the second half, we expect growth to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, the net export drag declines, and the investment cycle picks up,” Sengupta added.
Crisil, which sees GDP growth further slowing down to 6% in fiscal 2024, cited the slowdown in global growth that has started impacting India’s exports and industrial activity. “This will test the resilience of domestic demand,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.
India’s merchandise exports dropped 17% in October 2022 to $29.73 billion from $35.78 billion in the same month a year ago, while merchandise trade deficit rose to $27 billion. According to Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra, Q2FY23 economic growth will moderate on account of mixed crop output and the ripple effect of global slowdown.
