On October 5, two earthquakes struck Iran’s Semnan province, sparking rumours of a nuclear test. This fuelled uncertainty across West Asia, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. These claims were promptly refuted by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), based in Vienna, which runs an International Monitoring System (IMS) designed to detect even the smallest indication of a nuclear test.In an interview with SV Krishna Chaitanya, Dr Robert Floyd, Executive Secretary of the CTBTO, shared insights into how scientific data was used to dispel these rumours. He also discussed the CTBTO’s role in maintaining global security amid rising nuclear tensions, and the organisation’s efforts to engage with countries like India. Excerpts:Recent reports in Iran sparked speculation about a possible N-test. The CTBTO quickly clarified. Can you walk us through what happened and how the International Monitoring System (IMS) helps in such a situation?The CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of over 300 monitoring facilities, hosted by 89 countries. This network, currently more than 90% complete, uses seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic, and radionuclide technologies to detect nuclear explosions anywhere in the world — above ground, under water, and underground.In this case, 25 of our seismic stations picked up two seismic events on October 5 in the Semnan province of northern Iran. Our team in Vienna then analysed data and found that these events were consistent with previous earthquakes in the region, in 2015 and 2018. Using this data, our analysts can distinguish natural events from possible nuclear test explosions, and we share this reliable, verified data with all our member-states. This contributes to countering the spread of misinformation.Disinformation around seismic events can easily fuel public fear. How does the CTBTO ensure transparency and build trust?Transparency and trust are at the heart of our mission. Data gathered by IMS is shared with all member-states in near real-time. This ensures that they all have access to the same reliable, scientifically verified data, allowing them to make informed assessments.Beyond sharing data with our member-states, we are committed to keeping the public informed through various communication channels. In cases like the recent earthquakes in Iran, we use social media, web stories, and other outreach platforms to provide accurate info. It’s also worth noting that the treaty includes mechanisms like confidence building measures and provisions for consultation and clarification, all designed to increase transparency and build trust. Since the CTBT has not yet entered into force, we are not able to activate these tools at this time.With more than 90% of the IMS facilities already operational, how does the system continue to evolve to meet demands?We are focused on several key areas to ensure the IMS network keeps pace with emerging needs and advances in technology. To achieve this, the ongoing support of our member-states is crucial. They have already made significant investments in the IMS, and their continued contributions allow us to maintain and further develop what is already the most effective network of its kind. We also continue to seek opportunities for collaboration with experts, industry leaders, and academic institutions to stay at the forefront of technological advancements.We are seeing rising tensions with one country enriching uranium at high levels, another threatening to test or use nuclear weapons. What role does the CTBTO play in maintaining global security?Let me first say that it is important to remember that our work goes beyond detection; it’s about creating a world that fully rejects nuclear testing, ensuring lasting peace, stability, and security for all. It’s hugely encouraging that the vast majority of the international community supports the object and purpose of our Treaty — with 187 signatures and 178 ratifications. This momentum continues to build.Fifty years ago, India conducted its first N-test. Today, where do we stand with N-testing globally, and how has the CTBT impacted the frequency and nature of such tests?Since India’s first nuclear test 50 years ago, the world has made great progress in curbing nuclear testing, and the CTBT has played a key role in this shift. To put this into context: after the first atomic test in 1945, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted at 60 different sites around the world. Since the CTBT opened for signature in 1996, fewer than a dozen tests have taken place. In this century, only one state has conducted a test — a remarkable reduction. This is largely due to a voluntary moratorium observed by countries around the world and the strong norm established by the CTBT.The Treaty has not only drastically reduced the number of tests but has also strengthened the global consensus that nuclear testing is unacceptable in today’s world.This year, a report was published suggesting India may revoke its voluntary moratorium on N-testing…Today, we are witnessing a renewed global determination to see the CTBT enter into force. If any country were to reconsider its voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing, it would certainly be a cause for concern. However, it’s important to remember that the CTBT has established a strong global norm, upheld by the collective commitment of countries worldwide.
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