Global Economic Performance: The global composite PMI remained in the expansion zone for the fourteenth consecutive month in December 2024, with the services sector performing strongly, though manufacturing PMI showed contraction.Sectoral Highlights:Construction surged 15% above pre-pandemic trends, driven by infrastructure and housing demand.The utilities sector surpassed its pre-pandemic level by FY23 and has maintained momentum.Manufacturing is recovering but remains slightly below its pre-pandemic trend.Mining continues to operate below its pre-pandemic trend.Sectoral Recovery:Financial, real estate, and professional services exceeded pre-pandemic levels by FY23.Public administration, defense, and other services crossed the pre-pandemic trend by Q1 FY25.Trade, hotels, transport, and communication services are slowly recovering post-pandemic.Economic Growth Projections:Real GVA growth for FY25 is estimated at 6.4%, with private consumption set to grow by 7.3%, led by a rural demand rebound.Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to rise by 6.4%.Agriculture, Industry & Services:Agriculture growth is projected at 3.8% in FY25. Kharif food grain production is expected to hit a record 1647.05 lakh metric tonnes, a 5.7% increase from FY24, aided by a normal southwest monsoon.The industrial sector is estimated to grow by 6.2%, supported by strong growth in construction and utility services. Manufacturing PMI continues to grow at a strong pace despite challenges.Services sector growth is expected to remain robust at 7.2%, driven by financial, real estate, and public administration services. The services sector registered a 7.1% growth in H1 FY25.Rural Economic Sentiment: Survey found that 78.5% of rural households reported increased consumption expenditure in 2024.Government Spending & Investment:Union government capex increased by 8.2% in July-November 2024, with further acceleration expected.Private sector investment intentions surged to ₹2.45 lakh crore for FY25, with a 23.6% increase in capital goods company order books.Trade & Exports:Goods and non-factor services exports grew by 5.6% in H1 FY25.Imports grew by only 0.7%, and in Q2 FY25, imports contracted by 2.9%, contributing positively to GDP growth.Fiscal Developments:Defence, railways, and road transport accounted for 75% of capital expenditure.Gross tax revenue grew by 10.7% YoY from April-November 2024, but net revenue growth was constrained due to higher tax devolution to States.Inflation & Remittances:Retail inflation eased from 5.4% in FY24 to 4.9% in H1 FY25.India remains the top recipient of global remittances, with a current account deficit contained at 1.2% of GDP in Q2 FY25.FDI & Capital Flows:Gross FDI inflows rose by 17.9% YoY in April-November 2024, indicating strong investor confidence.Foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 704.9 billion by September 2024, covering 90% of external debt.Banking Sector Strength: NPAs in the banking system fell to a 12-year low of 2.6%, with SCBs’ capital adequacy ratio standing at 16.7%.Employment Trends:Unemployment for those aged 15 and above dropped from 6% in 2017-18 to 3.2% in FY24.The formal sector saw net EPFO subscriptions more than double from FY19 to FY24, with significant youth participation.
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