The India Today-Mood of the Nation survey was greeted with an equal measure of incredulity, euphoria and indifference. Incredulity because the findings seem to be the opposite of what many perceive as ground reality; euphoria among BJP supporters because the survey results reinforced the aura of invincibility around the party and the Prime Minister; indifference because many of us, including yours truly, have seen far too many polls over the years to get excited. An opinion poll, a survey of public opinion collected from a particular sample, is designed to reflect the opinion of a certain population by eliciting their replies to a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. But how credible are these polls? Credibility of these polls depend first and foremost on the integrity of the pollster and the process, which are required to be independent of commercial considerations and political interference. Polling agencies are commissioned to conduct polls by corporate bodies, government agencies, research organisations, political parties and also news outlets. If foreign governments and intelligence agencies also engage these agencies for psy ops, it is not yet known in the public domain. Polls conducted for news outlets have steadily lost credibility because the outlets themselves have increasingly acted like propaganda wings of the ruling dispensation. Loss of credibility was an issue even before 2014 and a sting operation in February that year proved that polling agencies and media outlets were only too willing to manipulate their data. Seven reporters of a news portal had then approached 11 polling agencies posing as representatives of a political party. Money was of no consideration, the agencies were told, but would they be willing to manipulate the data in favour of the party?
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