In the meantime, a cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Assam and neighbourhood, and a trough runs from northwest Bihar to southeast Assam across north Bangladesh in lower tropospheric levels. It will bring fairly widespread rainfall in Bihar, Jharkhand and northeast states and snowfall in the sub-Himalyan region such as West Bengal and Sikkim. Such unseasonal rain would impact standing wheat crops ready for harvest.In this period, hot and humid weather is very likely to prevail over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Kerala and Mahe. However, isolated pockets over Saurashtra and Kutch will see heat wave conditions on March 26-27.An analysis from Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators, shows that during Holi, temperatures have been rising in the past five decades.Analysing the data from 1970, the study claims that during March, the northern and western regions have the fastest warming, with the largest change occurring in J&K (2.8°C). Wwarming in April has been more uniform and Mizoram stands out with the largest change since 1970 (1.9°C).The study shows that only Maharashtra, Bihar and Chhattisgarh would have only a 5% probability of increasing temperature above 40°C in the early 1970s. However, in the past five decades, this probability has not only increased but expanded to more states.The analysis states that the chance of reaching 40°C expands to Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
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