“It’s speculative to suggest that the next season will outperform the current one,” an official stated. “Due to the festive season, the domestic market will need around 50 LMT from a closing stock of 54 LMT in October-November. This year’s sugar production started lower output than last year due to adverse weather. If conditions don’t improve, India may need to import sugar,” he added.Meanwhile, it has been evident that since the start of the 2024-25 sugar season in October, sugar production and number of sugar mills in operation have been lagging compared to the previous year. Also, the sugar recovery rate (9.1%) this year is less than the previous year (9.95%).Different assessments indicate that India may experience a decrease of approximately 60 lakh tonnes in sugar production compared to the previous year.According to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Limited (NFCSF), the country’s largest federation of cooperative sugar mills, around 19% less sugar would be produced compared to the previous year. Currently, NFCSF estimates 259 LMT of sugar production, as against 319 LMT of total sugar production last year.Further, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) revised estimate, sugar output would be around 258 LMT with a margin of error of (+/-) 2%.Experts say the estimate of lower sugar output is based on the government’s recent estimate of reduced sugarcane production.
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