They are cognisant of this fact that this is the area where they need to build. They’re investing time, energy. Look at the number of visits the PM has made to Tamil Nadu alone in the last five years. Tamil Nadu now ranks third, I believe, only after Gujarat and because of the recent visit to Maharashtra, now Tamil Nadu has gone to number three.From the opposition point of view, the problem lies in North and West: The remaining 310, 320 seats, where opposition has a strike rate against the BJP in single digits. When I say the opposition, it’s not only the Congress, but four parties. The Congress is taking the BJP head on between 220 and 250 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the SP is taking on the BJP head on in almost 65–70 seats. Then the RJD in Bihar, they are supposed to take on the BJP in 40 seats. And then finally, the NCP in Maharashtra. Until and unless these four parties, the Congress, SP, RJD, NCP, and now Shiv Sena… Unless they get their strike rate against the BJP to at least 25-30%, there is no way you can defeat it at the India level.But in the same statement is hidden the secret of how you can defeat the BJP. If you get 50% seats in West and North, then 150 MPs would have won either from a platform opposed to the BJP or neutral to any formation, they come into play. Another 150 non-BJP MPs from East and South, club it with [at least] 100 coming from West and North, and you have a game.The PM is making very frequent trips to Tamil Nadu. It could be that he is so confident of the BJP’s performance in the North and Gujarat that he can focus on TN, just to increase vote share, which seems to be a certainty. Do you think he sees a collapse of the AIADMK-DMK binary?First, the two Dravidian parties which have been in ruling formations in the last 30–40 years, their combined vote share is going down below 70% now. And this has been the case for the last 10–15 years. For the first time, I see it’s going below 65% or 60%. That means more than one-third of Tamil voters are looking for some options.Why would the BJP like to invest so much in Tamil Nadu? It’s not because there is a collapse of the DMK or AIADMK, which is not happening by the way. It’s simply because, like you cannot dominate the politics of North unless you win UP and Bihar, you cannot dominate the politics of South until and unless you start being a major force in Andhra and Tamil Nadu.Tamil Nadu is the UP of south. So Karnataka, they have been winning for 15, 20 years. Still, you are calling them a North party. Karnataka is very much South. It’s because in the minds of people, the nerve centre of the South is Tamil Nadu.So from that point of view, there’s a strategic, psychological and political game that a long-term player would like to invest in. And I see the BJP, like any other national party, they are long-term players, so they would invest, even if it means 2% or 4% of incremental vote share. Forget about the seats and all. They have enough seats, but they want to expand. And it also gives them cover in 10 years time. Sooner or later, someday, somebody will defeat them in Bihar or UP. They want a cover. That cover will come only from United Andhra or Tamil Nadu. You can’t cover for a possible defeat in UP or Bihar by winning Mizoram or Goa. You have to win a large state somewhere else. That’s why they are investing this much.How do you see the re-emergence of Congress in Telangana?I don’t subscribe to this thought process that the Congress was finished in Telangana and all of a sudden they have emerged. Again, when you are looking at data, tell me when the Congress went down below 35% vote share in Telangana ever. It’s just that after the victories, most of their MLAs deserted the party and went to the BRS, what used to be the TRS. Even in the last Assembly elections, the Congress did reasonably well. They were the principal opposition.The Congress was a party with a constant 35% vote share, which refused to go down no matter how hard the BRS tried. So the Congress was not a dead political force, as it is in Tamil Nadu or West Bengal or Bihar or UP, where their vote share has gone down to single digits, 5%, 6%, 7%, over 20-30 years and has not moved to double digits.Can BJP emerge as a force in Kerala if either the LDF or the UDF collapses?Again, the question is based on the existing political parties or formations. I would look at Kerala as a society. Why the BJP has found it tough to break into Kerala is because of the huge population of Muslims and Christians. Now if the BJP were to break into Kerala — whether it’s the LDF or UDF, forget about that — you have to have substantial support coming from Hindus, OBCs and they have tried that strategy when they played this temple issue in a big way last time. But that’s not enough. Unless they break into the Christian vote and a substantial segment of Christian society starts accepting the BJP as an acceptable political ally or a platform, they would find it difficult to win Kerala. So their strategy would be to consolidate or be the dominant player among Hindus and isolate Muslims. Till now it has not happened but they are in that direction.Language is also a major barrier. If you look at this East and South corridor I talked about, what is distinct is the language. So if you are in Bihar, how do you introduce yourself? Okay I’m Indian and I belong to so-and-so caste. I’m UPite or I am from Madhya Pradesh, but there is no sub-regional identity. But if you are a person from Odisha, you’ll say I’m Indian, I’m Odia and then the caste or the class becomes the third layer. So Odisha, Kerala, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, in all these states, the language is one additional barrier which the BJP, or for that matter, any Hindi-speaking party has to overcome in order to become a dominant political force.PM Modi is claiming that his party will win 370 to 400 seats. Your take.Well, this is part of psychological warfare. Just see how the public narrative has been shifted from whether BJP/NDA is winning or losing versus whether they are going to get 370 or not. So the prime minister making that statement on the floor of Parliament has made people, even those who are skeptics, take notice. The BJP appears to be in pole position, they have a massive lead over the opposition formation. But the BJP on its own, going to 370, meaning additional 70 odd seats for them is highly unlikely.
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