Some political surveys held since September 2021 have shown a steady decline in the political fortune of the BJP. In 2017, it had won 309 seats on its own, polling 39.67 per cent of votes. The NDA, altogether, had won 325 seats, with a vote share of 41.3 per cent. Going by pre-poll surveys, there could be a fall of about 3 per cent in the vote share of the NDA, which may translate into only 212-230 seats for it. In a house of 403, NDA needs only 202 seats to remain in power. However, the prospect of losing almost 100 seats has made the BJP extremely apprehensive about the final outcome of the election, and it is not sparing any stone unturned to ensure a victory.Such surveys have also predicted that SP and its alliance partners will win seats in the range of 137-152, up from 47 seats that the SP won in 2017. It is in this backdrop that SP hopes to come to power in case the BJP falls short of 202 seats. In terms of share of votes, the SP alliance is predicted to poll 34.4 per cent votes, up from 21.82 per cent, according to the latest survey.The BSP had considerable political base in the state but polled only 22.23 per cent of votes and won 17 seats in 2017. This time, the party is predicted to further lose its vote share and seats. However, in case of strategic voting by some communities, it may retain about a dozen seats. The AIMIM, on its part, may attract some Muslim votes, thereby hurting the prospects of the BSP or SP. The entry of AAP may also cause a split in opposition votes. Under the circumstances, opposition parties may do well to reach some sort of electoral understanding which may well knock the BJP out of contention in the bellwether state, a development which is expected to have serious repercussions for it at the national level when general elections are held in 2024. (IPA Service)
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