The ‘peace-keeping’ invasion of Ukraine by Putin has finally unleashed serious sanctions against Russia by USA, UK, EU states and some other significant nations. The sanctions will hurt Russia, and especially its people, quite hard. However, they are not going to work. If Putin stops, which he might, it will be because he feels that he has achieved his goals – which are largely to help the Russian separatists in Ukraine, prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and probably also to regain control over Chernobyl, a major nuclear power station from the USSR era.There are two minor reasons and one major reason why the sanctions will not stop Putin. The minor reasons include the fact that the West cannot totally isolate Russia – not just China, but even countries like India and Iran will remain escape valves for Russian export and import. The other minor reason is the fact that the sanctions will hurt the West too, especially Europe, and so, if Putin sticks it out, there is a good chance that he will get away with it. Western capitalist interests are not good at taking much pain. A few months of endurance by Putin and some polite noises afterwards might be sufficient to induce Western capitalists to get their governments to adopt a more lenient position. All this is obvious enough.But the major reason is something that no one is talking about – it has to do with the nature of global neoliberal capitalism. For the sanctions to work, they would have to hit and seriously cripple the Russian oligarchs who sustain Putin and are sustained by him. The sanctions are intended to do so, and they will hurt them a bit. But mostly the oligarchs will shrug off the hurt, for it won’t be significant – it is the ordinary Russian people, some of whom are against war, who will bear most of the hurt.
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