The BJP seems set to be knocked out of power in Uttarakhand and Goa which go to the polls on February 14. Goa, in particular, presents a peculiar situation. There are 40 seats in the legislative assembly. In the elections held 2017, Congress had won a majority by bagging 17 seats while the BJP won only 13 seats. However, blatant horse trading by the BJP enabled it to form a government there.Incidentally, switchovers by MLAs in the state continued during the whole five year term of the legislative assembly. It’s a sort of record that about 60 per cent of MLAs from various political parties (24 out of 40) deserted their parties to join others. Since only one or two MLAs can tilt the balance in formation of the government in the state, as we have seen earlier, every political party in the fray this time seems to be nursing hope of forming a government in case of a hung assembly.Immediately after the 2017 elections, Mahohar Parrikar had won the vote of confidence with the help of Congress leader Vishwajit Rane who had left the house mid-way. He afterwards joined BJP, got re-elected, and was made a minister. Two other leaders deserted the Congress within a year to join BJP. Mahohar Parrikar died in 2019, and thereafter Pramod Sawant became chief minister. Only a few months after, the BJP did not spare even its ally Maharashtra Gomantak Party, which was split into two, and two out of its three MLAs eventually joined the BJP. Just on the eve of the present elections, one of GFP’s MLA along with an independent MLA joined the BJP which seemed to present it with an advantage. However, the situation changed when BJP MLAs including Alina Saldanha and Michael Lobo quit the party to join AAP and Congress. One BJP MLA, Pravin Zantye, left the BJP to join MGP. This indicates that the ground situation continued to be fluid.In Uttarakhand too, the BJP seems to be facing defeat in polls for the 70 member legislative assembly, with the Congress in a far stronger position. The BJP has been suffering from infighting even since it came to power in 2017, which came to the boil in 2021 when Trivendra Singh Rawat was replaced by Tirath Singh Rawat as chief minister, and then again by Pushkar Singh Dhami recently. This infighting has seriously damaged its prospects in the state.The anti-establishment sentiment among voters is clearly visible. Most voters seem to be in favour of the Congress, though the AAP and BSP may also attract some votes in some constituencies. Uttarakhand and Goa are thus states to be watched keenly in the coming days. If the BJP posts losses, it may resort to horse trading in the post poll scenario. Anti-BJP parties must be prepared to foil such attempts. (IPA Service)Views are personal
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