“We saw fresh cases in Mumbai tripling in just 1.5 days. The positivity rate stood at 8.14 per cent on Thursday. Considering the highly transmissible nature of the Omicron variant, if cases double every two days, we will have 6 lakh cases a day in the country by January 15. Even if they double every three days, we will see that figure by January 26,” he said.“As per some reports, COVID symptoms in those infected by the Omicron variant are milder and not that lethal. It may be that it only affects the upper respiratory tract rather than the lungs, in which case oxygen levels won’t drop and hospitalization may not be necessary. But then the reality is that we are seeing a sizeable number of deaths in countries such as Russia, Germany and the US,” he said.“We cannot take it lightly. If anyone is not taking it seriously, just visualize the situation during the second wave: no hospital beds, oxygen crisis, victims not even getting a proper funeral. All this may well happen again,” Dr Gilada, who serves as president of AIDS Society of India and secretary general of Organised Medicine Academic Guild (OMAG) – a federation of 15 professional associations of post-graduate doctors in India, covering 250,000 consultants – said.“The gravity of the situation is evident from the fact that the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT), which is known to give almost 40 per cent false negative results, is currently throwing up 100 per cent positive results,” he said.Commenting on identification of COVID cases from the Omicron variant, he said that genome sequencing was not necessary. “S-gene dropout method in RT PCR tests can identify such cases. The cost of RT PCR tests is nominal for the government. There’s simply no need to go for genome sequencing which is expensive and time consuming,” he said.Asked if measures announced by the Centre such as ‘precautionary doses’ for those over 60 years of age and vaccinating those in the 15-18 age group will help, Dr Gilada said, “It is already too late for that to make a difference at this stage. Perhaps it will help in prevention later. We should have started much earlier.”“Also, almost 3 crore people in the 60 plus population who may have co-morbidities have not received even a single dose of the vaccine despite the Centre’s tall talk on vaccinating all adults in the country by December 31,” he added.Asked if the situation warranted clamping of lockdowns, Dr Gilada said stern measures were indeed needed if people continued to be lax in observing COVID-appropriate measures as was the situation presently. “A fresh phase of lockdowns seems imminent, though there will be more clarity about the situation on Friday, when we will cross 1000 mark of Omicron cases in India and 500 in Maharashtra,” Dr Gilada said.He was, however, critical of measures such as marking homes and localities where COVID cases were detected as ‘containment zones’, as is being done currently in Delhi as mandated by the Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA). “This just adds to the stigma for such families in the eyes of neighbours, grocery and milk delivery people etc. Since such cases are identified at Delhi govt hospitals which then intimate the concerned authorities, it may only discourage people from getting tested,” he said.It may be recalled that the DDMA sounded a ‘yellow alert’ in Delhi on December 28 under the so-called Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) after the Covid positivity rate in the national capital was recorded above 0.5 per cent for two consecutive days.Under this, the Delhi govt ordered closure of schools, colleges, cinema halls and gymnasiums with immediate effect and clamped various restrictions on the functioning of shops and public transport. Shops and establishments of non-essential goods and services and malls were ordered to open on an odd-even basis from 10 am to 8 pm. Public gatherings were banned and participation in weddings and funerals was restricted to a maximum of 20 people.Asked to comment on this, Dr Gilada said, “Such restrictions may be well-intentioned, but they often lead to creating a ‘license raj’ wherein officials may resort to extorting money.”Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior doctor working with a reputed Central govt hospital in Delhi said that a lockdown in the national capital was imminent. “The fact of the matter is that the actual number of cases would likely be ten times the official number, just as was the case during the second wave. Many people contract COVID and even lose their life outside the system and such numbers obviously never show up in official data,” she said.“While a lockdown of course has adverse consequences especially for the lower socio-economic strata comprising of daily wagers and migrant workers etc, the fact remains that measures such as night curfew and odd-even scheme for shops even when enforced in letter and spirit – which is not always the case, as a quick visit to any market would reveal – cannot effectively check transmission of the virus,” she said.“It would also be naïve to expect that New Year celebrations will be low key just because the Delhi govt has issued such orders. Remember how a ban was imposed on bursting of crackers on Diwali which literally went up in smoke. Considering that Omicron cases are going up and will continue to go up exponentially, a total lockdown must be imposed sooner than later,” she added.Incidentally, Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain on Thursday admitted that community spread due to Omicron variant had begun.“Omicron is gradually spreading in the community and the new, fast-spreading variant of concern accounted for 46 per cent of the 115 Covid samples analysed in the national capital so far,” he was quoted as saying by a news agency.”There are 200 coronavirus patients in Delhi hospitals. Genome sequencing of the samples of 115 patients showed 46 per cent had Omicron. These people include those who do not have any travel history. It means Omicron is now inside Delhi,” Jain said, adding, “Indeed, the variant is gradually spreading in the community.”It may be recalled that the WHO had on Wednesday said that a ‘tsunami’ threatened to overwhelm healthcare systems due to the new Covid variant, after AFP data showed cases surging across the world in the past week to levels never seen before.AFP reported a tally of 6.55 million infections globally for seven days through Tuesday, demonstrating the unprecedented spread of COVID.The figures were the highest since the WHO declared a pandemic in March 2020, underscoring the blistering pace of Omicron transmission.
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