The public spat between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump on Friday, that was broadcast live from the White House, stunned the entire world. The New York Times wrote that it “startled Washington, unnerved Europe, outraged Kyiv and delighted Moscow”. Since then, the US has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. President Trump’s first address to a joint session of Congress in his second term, on March 5, primarily focused on electoral themes covering illegal immigration, governance reform, financial review, inflation, tariffs, etc. Donald Trump’s transactional nature has always been unfettered by historical facts or commitment to President Ronald Reagan’s vision of the US as the “City on a Hill”. John Winthrop’s 1630 sermon used that phrase, urging new settlers to forge a values-based American utopia. During Mr Trump’s first term as President (2017-20), wise advisers and the Covid-19 outbreak kept his whims constrained.After his re-election, he has unleashed turbulence at home and abroad. By fact-free attacks on both friends and antagonists, surrounded by mostly ill- qualified Cabinet members, he is redefining diplomacy and undermining US-created alliances like Nato.His predecessor Joe Biden chose continuity by adopting many of Mr Trump’s strategic policies. The four-nation Quad, which comprises Australia, India, Japan and the US, was elevated by Mr Trump to the summit level. Mr Biden nurtured this China-containment approach, despite the distractions of the Russia-initiated 2022 Ukraine war. But the Biden administration’s enquiry into suspected Russian election interference left a grouse, which shapes Mr Trump’s assessment of Russia.Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III determined that though the charge was not prosecutable, it was no hoax. During the Oval Office altercation, Mr Trump alleged that both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and he had suffered harassment on this account. A US President making common cause with a Russian leader about a serious charge involving US domestic politics is quite unprecedented.President Zelenskyy, spurned by the White House, later issued friendlier tweets. European leaders also promptly supported him. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosted a European leaders’ summit over last weekend, not as follow-up, as originally intended, but for damage control.Newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz vociferously advocated self-reliance for European security. He committed to stand with Ukraine “in good and in testing times”. European Commission head Ursula von derLeyen and other European Union leaders, excepting Hungary, also expressed solidarity.The last time the US had abandoned its allies was in 1956, after Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal Company, jointly owned by Britain and France since 1869. The co-owners conspired with Israel to attack Egypt to dethrone Nasser. The administration of US President Dwight D. Eisenhower supported a UN resolution condemning the attack. This marked a global power shift, especially in West Asia and the Gulf. The former colonial powers, France and the United Kingdom, peacefully accepted US supremacy.Mr Trump, with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) slogan, has favoured an isolationist America, treating the Nato allies as an unwanted burden. This feeds the notion that all nations, including friends and allies, exploit the vast American market, while hiding behind high tariff walls.This paranoia, exacerbated by illegal immigration-caused xenophobia, is shaping US diplomacy. Mr Trump, in his almost two-hour-long address to Congress, mostly played on these themes, which had got him elected.Mr Trump, with a captive Republican majority in both Houses of Congress, endangers the existing global order and US-led alliance systems. First, the UN Charter recognises the centrality of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, big or small. But President Trump began his presidency addressing the Canadian Prime Minister as “governor” and taunting him to join the American federation as its 51st state. He then sought to purchase or annex the Panama Canal and Greenland. In his US Congressional address,he softened his approach by urging Greenland’s people to decide on accession to the US. He noted that US companies are acquiring the Panama Canal’s control, thus sidelining the use of military force.Mr Trump’s obfuscation about who attacked whom, leading to the Ukraine war, reflects his scorn for the core principles of international relations.Similarly, Mr Trump has a befuddled understanding of international trade.Ever since the Second World War, the US has propagated freer trade and lower tariffs. But with China masterfully exploiting the World Trade Organisation’s rules and becoming the world’s largest manufacturer, in the Trumpian scheme, a rejection and not reform was desirable. The imposed and threatened tariffs by the US on all countries trading with it invites global financial and commercial turbulence, if not disruption. The US stock markets have already crashed, anticipating mayhem.Finally, President Joe Biden assumed the presidency in 2021 supporting democracy globally. He managed a global summit on the issue but the Ukraine war, followed by the Gaza uprising, hijacked his agenda. President Donald Trump, loving despots, sees the issue as “woke” nonsense. Hence, the popularly elected Ukrainian President is a “dictator” and the permanently-in-power Russian President a peace icon. The mass sackings of government employees, including the watchdogs, may weaken US democracy.The 2023 US Senate-approved Kaine-Rubio Amendment bars the US President from unilaterally withdrawing from Nato. A two-thirds Senate majority is a prerequisite. If Mr Trump cannot withdraw but also does not cooperate, where does that leave Nato? The impromptu London summit of important European leaders signalled Europe’s fear of the US scaling back military support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s letter to Mr Trump, revealed in his Congressional address, expressing some contrition and willingness to accept Mr Trump’s lead in bringing peace, has significance. It appears that influential European leaders have repaired the Trump-Zelenskyy divide. Perhaps Mr Trump saw that being perceived as the Russian President’s stooge hurt his image at home and abroad. The Europeans also calculated that only the US can deter Russia and thus ensure that Mr Putin abides by his commitments. Mr Zelenskyy saw too that a total break with the US would leave him militarily vulnerable.The Europeans hold an additional ace. They have few conflicts of interest with China and have so far followed the US cue in targeting it. If the US ignores their concerns regarding Russia, they may discard US pleas on China.The world is therefore at an inflection point now. As the old order crumbles, or is demolished, new partnerships or antagonisms will emerge.Diplomacy faces a daunting future, but there is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine, while Gaza still faces uncertainty. Meanwhile the tariff war, having begun, may end equally rapidly if Mr Trump sees public opinion shift in the United States.
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