Friday’s Maharashtra results were a shocker for many, a stunner for others. The manner in which the Mahayuti swept the polls just six months after the Maha Vikas Aghadi bested them in the Lok Sabha polls left many a seasoned observer fumbling for words. How did it all unravel so fast for the opposition? First, a look at what went wrong in their camp. And then the dive into how the Mahayuti capitalised on a multi-pronged strategy involving Hindutva appeals, welfare schemes and micro-caste consolidation to engineer a famous win.MVA’s overconfidence and mismanagementAfter winning 31 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra earlier this year, the MVA grew overconfident and seemingly assumed that voters will automatically back them in the assembly polls too. This misplaced overconfidence led to complacency and poor planning.Instead of focusing on grassroots campaigning, MVA leaders wasted crucial time in seat-sharing negotiations, shuttling between luxury hotels in Mumbai for nearly two months. Even after prolonged deliberations, the alliance prioritised maximising the number of seats each party contested over fielding strong, winnable candidates.Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), for instance, fought in 86 seats, winning only 10, when they would have been better served if they had focused their efforts on winnable seats. Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), which had performed poorly in the Lok Sabha elections, insisted on contesting 95 seats despite having a realistic capacity to fight for only 70–75. This led to poor candidate selection and internal conflicts, particularly with the Congress.Internal rivalries within MVAThe Congress-Shiv Sena (UBT) tussle over seats further weakened the alliance. Uddhav Thackeray, aiming to position himself as a chief ministerial candidate, paid scant heed to ensuring a healthy win percentage. His party’s leader, Sanjay Raut, publicly clashed with Congress President Nana Patole, damaging relations within the alliance.Sharad Pawar, who also exploited these disputes to secure more seats for the NCP, refrained from endorsing Uddhav Thackeray as the MVA’s chief ministerial candidate. This was done perhaps in the hope of later positioning his daughter, Supriya Sule, for the role.The Congress, which had seen a resurgence in the Lok Sabha polls with 13 seats, for its part, overestimated its chances in the state elections. Senior leaders like Balasaheb Thorat lost their seats, reflecting a disconnect from grassroots realities. Thorat, an eight-time MLA, relied on outdated assumptions about voter loyalty and lost by over 10000 votes.
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