UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the message of the UNEP emission gap report is clear,” we are teetering on a planetary tightrope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”Guterres called for COP29 to drive progress on two key fronts: increasing ambition in the upcoming NDCs due by early 2025 and scaling up financial support for developing nations.The UNEP report presents a clear roadmap for the urgent measures needed to close the emissions gap. It emphasizes that global emissions must be reduced by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 from 2019 levels to have a realistic chance of achieving the 1.5°C target. With emissions rising in 2023, achieving these cuts now requires a drastic 7.5% reduction annually until 2035 for the 1.5°C goal, and 4% annually for the 2°C goal.The stakes are higher than ever, Andersen warned, stressing that even if the world overshoots 1.5°C, it is vital to keep striving for a net-zero and sustainable future. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” she noted.Despite the grim projections, the UNEP report presents a silver lining by highlighting the technical potential for substantial emission reductions. It estimates that up to 31 GtCO2e could be eliminated in 2030 and 41 GtCO2e in 2035 using existing technologies, representing approximately 52% and 72% of 2023 emissions, respectively. Key contributors to these reductions include increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies and wind energy, which could account for 27% of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035.Forestry measures, such as reduced deforestation and reforestation efforts, could also play a critical role, accounting for around 20% of reductions in both years. Other significant opportunities include efficiency measures, electrification, and fuel switching in buildings, transport, and industry sectors.
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