SRINAGAR: The NC-Congress alliance is heading to form the coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir as the alliance has crossed the halfway mark of 46 in the 90-member J&K Assembly. It would be the first elected government in Jammu and Kashmir post Article 370 abrogation.The NC has performed exceptionally well. It is beyond the expectations of the party as well.In the 90-member J&K Assembly, NC has so far won six seats so far and is leading in 35 seats.Of the 41 seats that the party is leading or winning, 34 seats are in Kashmir and seven seats are in Poonch, Rajouri, Ramban and Kishtwar district of Jammu region.The party swept in its stronghold in Srinagar by winning three seats and leading in four out of the remaining five seats. J&K Congress chief Tariq Hamid Karra, who is contesting from the Central Shalteng seat in Srinagar is also leading.The party vice president and former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has won from Budgam seat by 18485 votes and is also leading in the Ganderbal seat by over 8500 votes.The party has successfully braved the BJP’s poll campaign, which was directed at the party and managed to win support of the public both in Kashmir and Jammu region.The poll campaign of the party remained focused on the restoration of Article 370 and statehood and in its poll manifesto it not only promised the restoration of Article 370 but also talked of greater autonomy. The party has also called for the reinstatement of the now disbanded 150-year-old practice of Durbar Move.The party’s poll campaign was led by Farooq Abdullah, his son Omar Abdullah and party MPs Aga Ruhullah and Mian Altaf. The leaders also talked about sadak, bijli and pani but the focus of their campaign remained the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.The dominant sentiment in Kashmir and Chenab Valley of Jammu region is also in favour of Article 370 and NC gauged the mood of people very well and kept its campaign focused on restoration of Article 370.The party during its poll campaign also repeatedly asserted that there was no question of aligning with BJP.The party understood the fact that even after 10 years there was still anger against PDP and Muftis for aligning with BJP in 2014 despite seeking votes in the polls against the saffron party.Due to its alliance with the BJP, the PDP is now not the force to reckon with and could only take the lead in four seats in the 90-member Assembly. Such has been the anger of people that even PDP chief and former CM Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti is trailing from the erstwhile stronghold of her party Bijbehara constituency in south Kashmir.The NC had refused to align with the PDP in the parliamentary polls saying it had been weakened and never looked for alliance with the party for Assembly polls.The NC also check-mated the popularity factor of Baramulla MP Er Rashid, who had emerged as a strong political force after his spectacular win in the parliamentary election from Baramulla seat.His influence diminished in the Assembly polls. The NC questioned how Er Rashid was released from jail while others having similar charges were denied bail and even accused him of being the BJP proxy.It seems the allegations by NC and other parties have badly hurt the chances of Er Rashid’s AIP.Rahid was hopeful of winning enough seats to emerge as a kingmaker in the government formation but he has been pushed to the margins by the voters.A similar fate has been met for PDP, which is leading in only four seats. This is a major turnaround for the party, which has emerged as the single largest party in the 2014 Assembly polls by winning 28 seats. The party’s alliance with BJP in 2014 is being blamed for the party’s poor show.As far as the Congress is concerned, the party is leading in six constituencies, out of which five are in Valley.The party decision not to launch an aggressive poll campaign to counter the BJP in its stronghold in the Jammu region has cost the party dearly. Even Omar Abdullah had advised Rahul Gandhi and other leaders to focus on the Jammu region instead of holding rallies in the Valley.If the leads turn in seats, the NC-Congress alliance has touched the 47 mark, which is one more than the halfway figure of 46. The tall may go further as some NC and Congress rebels had contested the polls as independent candidates.As far as BJP is concerned, the party has remained the Jammu-specific party and could not open an account in Valley, where it contested 19 seats and supported other parties and independents.The party has won three seats and is leading in 26 other seats. It is going to improve its tally of 25 seats in 2014 polls if the leads convert into votes.However, the party’s “Naya Kashmir” narrative has not found takers outside the Jammu region and the party has failed to make inroads in the Valley in the last 10 years despite being in power in the centre.Not only did the BJP win any seat in Valley but their allies including the J&K Apni Party also failed to open account.The Apni Party, which was floated by an influential businessman and former PDP leader in 2020, could not make any impact in the polls. The tag of being BJP’s B-team right from its formation cost the party badly and it failed to come out of it.It also has sent a message that neither the BJP nor its allies are acceptable to people in Kashmir as of now.
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