The global metrological organisation World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) concurred with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that the possibility of La Niña conditions emerging towards the end of this year is high.According to the latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts, there is a 60 per cent chance of La Niña conditions emerging towards the end of this year indicating the Indian subcontinent would have ‘severe’ winter conditions in the upcoming winter and further, delayed retreat of the monsoon.La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, such as winds, pressure and rainfall.Generally, La Niña produces the opposite climate impacts to El Niño, especially in tropical regions.The influence of La Nina already started impacting the Indian sub-continent by disrupting weather patterns. Even after almost the middle of September, there is no sign of a monsoon retreat. Experts see the monsoon season will extend beyond its usual end in September.Generally, the southwest monsoon starts retreating from India in the second week of September. Meanwhile, IMD has also predicted above-normal monsoon and severe rainfall in the Northwest region. The country has already received 108 per cent of rainfall.Extended monsoon would destroy the standing crops that are ready to be harvested from the middle of October. Followed by a severe long spell of winter especially in North and East India.Meanwhile, IMD is closely monitoring the situation and continues to issue updates and advisories.According to WMO analysis, La Nina and El Nino intensity are increasing due to human-induced climate change events, which are increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo rejected the theory that short-term cooling of the ocean surface due to La Nina would mitigate the global warming impact.“Since June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” said Saulo.
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