A toss-up district that was once the heart of ‘Reagan country’Orange County’s 47th District runs along the California coast southeast of Los Angeles and was once the heart of “Reagan Country,” a region long synonymous with conservative politics and known for its ties to the former president. But the county that was once largely white and Republican has grown demographically diverse and increasingly Democratic, and the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a U.S. Senate candidate, is up for grabs.Republicans consider it a top target.Former legislator Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022, is the leading Republican, while two Democrats are dueling to get on the November ballot, state Sen. David Min and Joanna Weiss, who founded an organization that promotes progressive candidates.A strongly Democratic district that votes RepublicanThe Central Valley farm belt is a political conundrum. Districts in the sprawling region sometimes called America’s salad bowl typically have significant Democratic registration edges, but those seats are often held by Republicans.A case in point is Rep. David Valadao, a Republican who has endured despite facing steep registration deficits. Democrats hold a 16-point advantage in his 22nd District. He held his seat from 2013 until January 2019, lost it for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox.He might be headed toward a rematch in November with Rudy Salas, the Democrat he defeated in 2022 who is backed by the campaign arm of House Democrats. Valadao has stressed an independent streak, while spotlighting his efforts to secure more water for farmers, a perennial issue in the Central Valley. Salas, considered a moderate, has depicted Valadao as a Trump acolyte masquerading as a centrist.Both Salas and Valadao are facing rivals from within their own party on the primary ballot. Republican rancher Chris Mathys is looking to surprise Valadao and state Sen. Melissa Hurtado is competing for Democratic votes with Salas.Round two in the central valleyRepublican John Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Gray in 2022 in what was then a new House district in the Central Valley. He won by only 564 votes, the closest congressional contest in the state that year.They are the only candidates on the March 5 primary election ballot, setting up a rematch in the 13th District, which has a prominent Democratic tilt and a large Latino population. But the most likely voters tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners, as is the case statewide.Gray, who is backed by the campaign arm of House Democrats, argues that his party can’t reclaim the House majority without winning his district.Another potential rematch east of Los AngelesRep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation, held off Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, in a district east of Los Angeles by about 5 points in 2022. That district, the 41st, is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats.This year could see a rematch.Calvert brings the advantages of incumbency but his conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district that includes many transplanted Los Angeles residents and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ voters. Rollins is gay.Rollins, who is backed by the campaign arm of House Democrats, says it’s time for new leadership and has depicted Calvert as an extremist.
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