They combined genetic data from SARS-CoV-2, three endemic coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and the closely related coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV to build a viral family tree.Using this, they modelled how viral traits have evolved over time. Together, these traits provided an estimate of the decline in antibody levels after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and of other factors needed to understand reinfection risk.The findings suggest that Covid-19 is likely to transition from a pandemic disease to one that is endemic, Townsend said.Still, many unknowns remain, including the probable severity of disease when someone is reinfected. Individuals can also vary significantly in both their susceptibility to reinfection and, if reinfected, their disease course — including whether they are likely to get long Covid, the report said.
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